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6/22/13

Dilma's speech to Brazil available in English...

...on this link right here, full transcript and subtitled youtube. 

And notably it's the FIFA World Cup Brazil 2014 website, which is interesting when you take the words of ex-Brazil star Romario this morning who said that "FIFA is the real President of Brazil". Romario is now a member of the national congress and the parliamentarian went on to say (translated):
"FIFA will make a four billion Real profit, from which they should pay one billion in taxes, but they'll pay nothing. They come, put on their circus, don't spend anything and then take it all with them."
He also pointed out that the money the State is using to build the new stadiums for the 2014 World Cup would be enough to pay for 8,000 new schools, 39,000 school buses or 28,000 school sports tracks.

Romario is closer to the nub of the problem than most outside Brazil and looking in currently suspect. Along with the endemic corruption in Brazil, lower classes of locals are looking at the money being spent on the big shows (plural, remember that Brazil has the 2016 Olympics as well), then at the state of their own lives and are now saying that they don't want a 'show for gringos only'.

UPDATE: Oh look, art imitates life. The Guardian now runs a report that says basically the same as above. Just more words.

Tough year in the markets?

Yup, tough. Therefore just remember how damned lucky you are to have "lost money in the stock market" as your top neurotic worry and on that score, congrats to Laura for making the full year since she was diagnosed with breast cancer. She fought back, she's winning and she's even had the guts to set her year down on record in her blog.

6/21/13

The Friday-Night-Bury-That-News-While-Market-Players-Are-At-Happy-Hour NR stakes winner (part deux)

This could become a regular feature, as last week's resonated with several of you (according to the mailbox at least).

Anyway, to the point and this week's clear winner is Golden Minerals (AUMN) (AUM.to) for this beauty  of an after-hours Friday NR that sees the company closing down its only producing asset and laying off over 400 on-site workers, then aside that looking to carve 25% off its G&A bill and all sorts of other niceties (such as "no buyer for Quevar"). And in this way, Jeffrey Clevenger repeats his total snafu at Apex Silver and manages to grind his second public listed company down to nothing.


Becoming a habit Jeff, no?


Sub-$1m placements in explorecos

A recent and growing trend in the junior mining world is the tiny placement. The thinking behind it on a corporate marketing level is that 1) yeah of course our share price has been beaten up but 2) we need some cash to keep going until 3) the recovery sets in (soon!) so 4) dear loyal shareholder, bung us a few thou and you get some cheapo shares which will pay you greatly when things get going again.

Dear investor: Do not do it. Do not go there. Do not feed the lions.

What the junior exploration mining sector needs right now is a bit of good old fashioned Darwinian natural selection, law of the jungle survival of the fittest and all that jazz. If you give money to these people they are not going to further their projects or develop and add value to assets because the type of bucket change cash they're looking for is only good for keeping the company in administrative good shape and that boils down to one major line item; paying directors' salaries. In other words, you sign on for one of these micro-placements and you'll be putting your hard-earned cash directly into the back pockets of people who have already run their companies into the ground (due to a reason that will lie somewhere between bad luck and outright criminal scammery, with most of them sitting at-or-around the midpoint of simple but honest bad management) and want to spin out their luck a few more months and have enough in their back pockets to keep their Amex payments and mortgages in good shape.

And amazingly, as this site shows there have been no fewer than 84 sub-$1m private placements opened and run in the month of June 2013 alone. Some of them have even closed, some are still "pending", some are cancelled but you go down the list and tot them up yourself: The twenty days of June 2013 has seen 84 of them. Eighty fucking four! And according to my inbox this morning, that's now 85 and counting. This is nothing short of desperation.

It's time to put down the crackpipe, people. The directors who want the easy cash to cut your own salary cheques, it's 12-step program time for you guys. The traders looking for the sweet deal on a microcap that's been beaten down to nothing, just say no. These companies need, absolutely need to wither and die in order for the junior mining industry as a whole to survive and the sooner it happens, the better.

UPDATE: Make that 86


Chart of the day is...

...gold in 2013.

Seriously, seriously, seriously...

Machaq Mara 5521

Happy Andean New Year number 5,521 to you all, which goes by the name Machaq Mara in the Altiplano region of Peru and Bolivia and was welcomed this morning by real people doing real ceremony in real locations, rather than women and men wearing sheets at Stonehenge.


Hope you have a good year.




6/20/13

Gold Resource Corp (GORO): The AGM vote

Here's the Reg F that reports on the voting results of the Gold Resource Corp (GORO) AGM that went down today, June 20th 2013. And here's the paydirt: 


Oh look, more people voted against the Reids than voted for them, now there's a shocker. Anything connected with Hochschild's (HOC.L) pissedoffiness of the way in which this joke of a mine has been run? I think we should be told. We're also looking forward to the Reids collective departure, not that they'll try their very hardest to maintain their entrenched position at all costs, oh no no no no.


Hold or sell your junior: A guide





UPDATE: Iwnattos runs his own version of the flowchart, a model of the elegance found in simplicity.

Luis Castilla's exit from the Peru FinMin job imminent

A few weeks back we threw out a quick one-liner post about rumours being picked up that Luis Castilla, Peru's Finance Minister, was leaving his job. Things went quiet on that score for a while but in the last couple of days the whole issue has re-surfaced and it now looks as though the next couple of weeks will be his last ones as a minister. 

As is often the case, who replaces him will be as interesting as his departure. Castilla will almost certainly fall straight into a plum and high-paying job in the private sector so we don't have to worry too much about his family's needs (phew!) but the choice and background of the replacement, chosen directly by the wife of the country's Head of State will send a strong signal as to the economic direction Ollanta wants to take over the next two years.

UPDATE: Luis Castilla addressed the rumours today. He said (translated):
"...there has been speculation on my exit (from the ministry), but judging by the workload that the President  gives me every day there seems to be no changes, and neither is there in the economic policy of the country, therefore I reject the rumours. There's always a possibility, but we keep on working."
Make of that what you will but I still expect him to be gone by August.

What Casey Research can do for you

We note with mild amusement that Casey Research has today told its flock to cover the GLD puts that were placed a few weeks back for "insurance purposes" and that according to their own special branch of mathematics, they book a gain of 133%. That's a good thing, now all they have to do is address the 60 or 70 stock picks that are all wildly underwater, then all's good.

For example, let's consider Louis Lobito James's words of February 26th 2013:
"Today, based on some of the email I'm seeing, I feel as though I'd had a dream about a horrible car accident and am now witnessing the accident, being completely helpless to stop it. It just kills me to think about all those people giving up at the very hour when winning moves are to be made. I wish I had the eloquence of Shakespeare's King Henry V, so I could make a Crispin's Day speech that would give everyone the courage and discipline to fight through to victory. 
"But you, reading this alert, are the elite of the Casey universe. I expect more from you. I expect discipline, reason, and above all, the courage to act if stocks in great companies go on sale at stupid prices. If that happens, while everyone else is panicking, I expect you to be buying low. Make me proud. 
"And make yourself a lot of money."

How you doing out there, elites? Are you making him proud?

Seriously

Has Jim Sinclair started quoting the battle scene chapters from Lord of the Rings yet?





6/19/13

Guess when Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) did its rollback?

Yep, it was June 18th:


That's one humdinger of a post roll selloff. Y'know, if it were anyone else's show this might even be a buy once the "We're digusted and we're not going to stand for it any more" money has done its Exit Stage Left. But this company? No way, no chance and no honeymoon available.

Slice of pizza, anyone?

A disclaimer

The best thing I read while on the road was this from here.

* - this is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. My Own Market Narrative is a comedy blog meant only to entertain, not to inform your investment decisions. The author of this blog is not a licensed securities dealer, has no concept whatever of how to manage money, and has possibly even served time for criminal offences and/or been made the subject of restraining orders. If you want someone to inform your investment decisions, phone some company like Sprott or Canaccord and ask them if they would like to anally rape your life savings to death. 

And it deserves more eyeballs. Even if he couldn't save LYD.to.




It's impossible to save LYD until Louis Lobito Jonah James decides to sell and take his big loss, only then it has a chance of moving back up.

6/16/13

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN215 has just been sent to subscribers. There will be no more posts on this blog until Thursday.

Peru Presidential Polling: Ollanta is slipping

The monthly snapshot of the Peru political scene from country benchmark pollster Ipsos/Apoyo is out and here's the headline number:


President Ollanta Humala's approval rating has slipped considerably in the last two months and now stands at 41% (his wife Nadine gets 50%, fwiw). And here's the socioeconomic breakdown of that approval:


The slippage is across the board but one that catches the eye is in the Bs, being the best indicator of true middle class in the country (the As are a very small group in percentage terms, perhaps half a million people man/woman/child in a coun try of ~30m). That 43% is a lot lower than any time in the last year.

Anyway, we're now getting pretty (and petty) typical mid-term politic gripes in Peru that make a lot of noise and tend to grind down a government's popularity without meaning much on the grand scale of things. However watch out folks, because between now and the end of July we're now expecting the big ruling on the maritime border between Chile and Peru which will be a big and potentially defining moment for government popularity on both sides of the border.