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11/23/13

Just in case you were wondering whether Twitter is a good idea

This:





11/22/13

The Friday OT: Foo Fighters; Miss the misery

What an amazingly good track of rock music this truly is.



For strange reasons, I fell in love with the Foos this week after a long absence. Now it's your turn.

A Flash update...

...has just been sent to subscribers, 10:15am EDT Friday moning. Belt'n'braces post complete.

More evidence that The Americas were populated 30,000 years ago

Up to recently, scientific consensus on the arrival of humans to The Americas was a time range of between 12,000 and 16,000 years ago, with the passage via the Bering Strait in the North. That theory, and the method of arrival, is now looking under serious pressure thanks to recent discoveries. Learn more at this fascinating link, here's how the article kicks off:
A team of Uruguayan researchers working at the Arroyo del Vizcaíno site near Sauce, in Uruguay has found evidence in ancient sloth bones that suggests humans were in the area as far back as 30,000 years ago. The team describes their evidence and findings in a paper they've had published in Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 

Most scientists today believe that humans populated the Americas approximately 16,000 years ago, and did so by walking across the Bering Strait, which would have been frozen over during that time period. More recent evidence has begun to suggest that humans were living in South America far earlier than that—just last month a team of excavators in Brazil discovered cave paintings and ceramics that have been dated to 30,000 years ago and now, in this new effort, the research team has found more evidence of people living in Uruguay around the same time.
In this new effort, the researchers found over a thousand bones at the Arroyo del Vizcaíno site, (from approximately 27 different animals) most of which once belonged to the now extinct giant sloth. What was most remarkable however, were the deep slash markings on some of the bones—indicative of human stone tools. Also interesting was that the bones were all from the remains of large, full grown sloths—all in a single place where they wouldn't have died in other ways such as from falling off a cliff. Taken together, it appears the sloths were killed individually, as needed, and eaten, most likely, by humans as no other known animal could have pulled off such a feat.

continues here

Pretium (PVG) (PVG.to) is subject of the day in the junior mining world...

...of course, due to the NR out this morning that's returned better than expected gold numbers from the 10,000 tonne bulk sample so far. Right now, with around 45 minutes before the open the US PVG ticker is about 25% up in thinnish pre-mkt activity, so that's a type of benchmark I suppose. 

I've been fielding a few mails on PVG and the NR contents this morning, so in order to state the position clearly to a slightly wider audience here's a reply I sent to A.N Other just a couple of minutes ago. Reproduced here for your information, as it gets to the point succinctly
I don't see why PVG should rally on the NR, barring a relief-type pop that then fades as the smarter end of the mkt uses it as a useful exit opportunity (see how LYD has traded recently for a model). The doubt has never been about the gold content of the sample. Today we find the sample has gold (and perhaps a little more than expected) but so what?

The key word in the whole story is still "representative" and it doesn't matter whether the 10kt bulk sample comes in with triple the amount of gold than expected, the question of whether PVG's testing method represents the larger deposit has not gone away.


If it runs harder than i expect today, i'll short it.
I don't find this issue particularly complicated. dyodd, dude.

The Scariest Chart For Stock Bulls Ever!!!

Others try and fail, IKN has the real juice. HERE'S THE CHART!


Yes, IKN joined the desperate grab for sheep's eyeballs. My stars, I wish the idiots publishing Business Insider and Zerohedge, KWN and all the other bullshit hype stops around the internet would just, for once, shut the fuck up.

11/21/13

Seafield Resources (SFF.v): Smoke and mirrors

According to the mailbox, your humble scribe wasn't the only person scratching his noggin over the rather odd NR out of Seafield Resources (SFF.v) this morning. For one thing it's the first news out of the company for three months, a gap of silence which compares to its hi-freq bullshit peak when hailed in late 2010 by that supreme market bullshitter James West as "the next Ventana Gold"...


...and pumped to an inch of a jailhouse before the insider left the sheep holding a massive bag (hey that worked out well). For another the strategic alternatives included a most bizarre technical update...
During the recently completed "Confirmatory Metallurgical Test Work Program" for the feasibility study for the Miraflores Project, it became evident that the measured gold grades within the chosen samples were generally well under the targeted grades. After further investigation, it appears that some of the gold was being lost during the core cutting and drilling processes. During the previous campaigns, the standard procedures in place were insufficient to capture the respective slurries and test them to ascertain the component of gold contained within these slurries. The key areas for further study are the high grade vein zones whereby the gold is generally associated with argillized material as well as in the more porous areas of the breccia. Seafield believes that it is important to design a program targeting these inefficiencies and review the measured gold grades in an attempt to capture the true grades of the deposit, which may have a positive impact on the resource estimate at Miraflores. As a result, the Company has decided to design a work program to analyse the potential impact on the project and to delay the completion of the Feasibility Study until this issue has been fully evaluated.

... which twisted and turned around one main point: the gold grades it's announced so far are a crock of shit. They try to spin it as a potential advantage, too (worth a grin all by itself). You'll also note that they've delayed the Feas Study for  totally logical reason, right?

Well, come 1:30pm the mystery cleared up more than a little as it just so turns out, all coincidence like, that SFF filed its quarter. Which included this:
At September 30, 2013, the Company had a working capital deficit of $1,854,761, compared to a working capital of $1,796,387 at December 31, 2012. The Company had cash and cash equivalents of $665,714 at September 30, 2013, compared to $2,255,941 at December 31, 2012.
This of course has nothing to do with the fact that they've delayed passage of the feas. Or anything to do with the 2c and 3c share price these days. Or anything to do with the piece of shit asset that these jokers are still trying to pass off as a valuable property. SFF is a prime example of the type of exploreco that needs to die before the sector can make something of a true recovery. And it's run by the type of management that needs to be barred forever from ever ripping off the investment public with their sophistry and soft soap. The sooner these wastes of space disappear, the better.

Alix Resources (AIX.v) and FuckYeahBitcoins! Chapter Two

Chapter One was last week, just before Alix Resources (AIX.v) had their trading asses halted.

Chapter two has just arrived. Oh what fun

And make sure you read VancVenture's brand new DD post on AIX.v, you'll get a better idea of how smelly this one is

November 21, 2013
Alix Provides Update on Bitcoins
VANCOUVER, BRITICH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Nov. 21, 2013) - Alix Resources Corp. ("Alix" or the "Company") (TSX VENTURE:AIX)(FRANKFURT:37N) (ARXRF-US CLEARING SYMBOL) announces that, with regards to the proposed launch of a bitcoin exchange (see PR dated November 14, 2013), the company will not be proceeding with the implementation of a bitcoin exchange at this time, instead the company will conduct additional due diligence on the bitcoin sector prior to making a decision as to whether to implement a Bitcoin exchange. The Company will provide an update to its shareholders when the due diligence process is complete.

The Company further announces that it intends to continue its proposed bitcoin service payment plan with its mining service providers, whereby such service providers will accept payment in bitcoin for their services. Since the Company's initial announcement, the Company has received favorable responses from other entities in the junior public mining exploration industry, and anticipates that it may enter further bitcoin service payment plans with others. The Company will provide further updates as they arise.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD

Michael England, President




Money talks, Augusta Resources (AZC) (AZC.to) edition

Notes on the chart.


Price discovery. Capitalism rules.

Catching up with that Casey Pretium (PVG) call

"I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and have instructed my broker to place what is, for me, a large order. And I know I'm not the only one here at Casey Research doing so. We had active stink bid guidance to buy under $5, which I hope was filled for many of you."
And how are things going on that one, six weeks later?


47% down...hey, that's over one point five percent per trading day! Hopefully that average drops a little as you get towards the 100 day point, Lobito. Anyway, it's good to know that you're truly "feeling the pain" of your subbers this time, instead of your usual trick of just herding them into stocks you reco and never buy yourself. That's because we can't expect you to give up your cushy little number, so as a second prize it'll be nice to see you learn a bit about responsibility for once in your life and note, all up close and personal, how your guff and nonsense writings affect real people and their back pockets. All this assuming, of course, that you really did buy your big chunk of PVG and that you're not just making shit up. Perish that thought, right Lobito?

The Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) business model





Fino: "So here's the plan: We'll set up a gold mining company, then we'll raise a whole heap of cash to fund it, then we'll produce gold at a higher cost than its market value, then we'll make a series of quarterly net losses until the money runs out, then we'll raise another pile of cash from the market, then we'll continue to produce gold at a loss until that money runs out, as well. Then we'll raise more cash from the market."

Maria: "Cool! Do we get to pay ourselves a fat cash salary?"

Fino: "Sure, of course. $350k or $400k a year. This is capitalism, after all. We need to be rewarded for our hard work."

UPDATE: Setty reminds your humble scribe of another aspect of the GCM.to biz model which had slipped the mind at the time of posting. Thanks due. 



MAG Silver (MAG.to) (MVG) has a friend

Mason Hill Advisors adds to its pile of MAG Silver (MAG.to) (MVG) shares:



That puts them at around 7m shares of MAG; good to have friends, no? We trust that Mason Hill's continued support won't end up the way of other instos' support of other juniors. Like Pretium or Colossus. After all, what could possibly go wrong?

11/20/13

UPDATED Augusta Resources (AZC) (AZC.to)

It's not the Ross Beaty cash, it's the Ross Beaty timing


One man's broken slot machine is other's reversion to the mean: Here's PR newswire:

TUCSON, Ariz., Nov. 20, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has dealt a dramatic and potentially devastating blow to Augusta Resource Corporation's proposal to build the Rosemont mine, a massive open-pit copper mine in the Santa Rita Mountains just south of Tucson.
In a Nov. 7 letter to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the EPA recommended that the proposed Rosemont copper mine should not receive a permit that would allow the company to dump potentially toxic mine wastes into area waterways.
After completing a comprehensive and detailed analysis, EPA concluded that Rosemont's proposals to mitigate the mine's severe and permanent damage to area water supplies are "scientifically flawed" and "grossly inadequate," and advised the Corps of Engineers that the project "should not be permitted as proposed."
The EPA's recommendation to deny Rosemont's permit application is a potentially devastating blow to the mining project because EPA has veto authority over the permit, which would be issued by the Corps of Engineers only if the proposed mine meets Clean Water Act standards. The permit is required before construction could begin on the mile-wide, half-mile deep open-pit mine.

continues here


UPDATE: ok, this is interesting. AZC has sent this NR out tonight, here's how it starts:

TORONTO , Nov. 20, 2013 /CNW/ - Augusta Resource Corporation (AZC.TO) (NYSE MKT: AZC) ("Augusta" or "Company") comments on the Save the Scenic Santa Rita's (SSSR), a local project opponent, inaccurate press release, which makes inappropriate comments and distorted interpretations in relation to a recent Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) letter issued to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (ACOE) on November 7, 2013 . 

"The SSSR press release today was not only inaccurate but another attempt to harm our company," said Gil Clausen , Augusta's president and CEO.   "This group has historically mischaracterized the level of impact that letters between agencies have and obviously do not understand the permitting or the evaluation process.  SSSR totally misrepresents the contents of the letter and the EPA's comments actually said that they were looking forward to working with the Army Corps on mitigation and risk based assessments.   For example, nowhere in the EPA's letter did they discuss discharges as 'toxic mine wastes'.  The SSSR is fabricating information and attributing that information to EPA in an effort to scare our shareholders and disrupt markets."
 
The Company states the EPA has been working diligently with the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) and other Federal Agencies to finalize the work required to complete the permitting process.  The EPA letter refers to old plans and issues which were the basis of discussion and not decision.  The ACOE will make their decisions based on facts, rules and regulations as they continue to maintain good dialog with the EPA. continues here 

Fun no? Maybe we're about to witness an enviro group be sued, class action style, by a bunch of disgruntled sellers? Or maybe AZC is overstating its case? One thing's for sure, one of these sides has got it wrong.



 

Wednesday whimsy: Louis CK

I'm taking the rest of the day off, so here's a really great 10 minutes of Louis CK to keep you suitably amused and entertained (or go here for the youtube page). It starts funny, it gets funnier and funnier.

A Flash update...

...has been sent to subscribers this fine Wednesday morning, pre-opening bell. A near-term trade outlined.

Chart of the day is...

...Bitcoin, over the last...oh, wait a moment, my mistake, it's silver Jan 2009 to June 2011:



Silly me. Mind you, interesting how the same people who rah-rah'd silver in March-May 2011 are now screaming from the rooftops about Bitcoin. Innit?

11/19/13

Behre Dolbear's 2013 mining risk survey and its obvious flaw

The Behre Dolbear 2013 Ranking of Countries for Mining Investment: “Where Not to Invest” survey is out and the blog Junior Gold Miner Seeker has kindly offered up a link so that you too can get your free copy of the PDF. But sadly, it's not easy to take the thing seriously once you've scrolled down to this on page 2, the league table of the 25 covered countries.



Now, we can argue the toss about the relative merits of Canada versus Australia, or Mexico/Chile/Brazil if you prefer, and within subjective reason I can at least accept a different ranking on those countries (and others) to my own thoughts. But Peru lower than Colombia? What are these dudes smoking?

However, IKN has spotted the Achilles Heel in Behre Dolbear's scoring system and is here to help, with the hope that BD fixes things for next year's survey. Here's the problem, it comes from page 1 of the PDF and I quote:
The 25 countries considered in this year’s survey are ranked based on 7 criteria:
• the country’s economic system
• the country’s political system
• the degree of social issues affecting mining in the country
• delays in receiving permits due to bureaucratic and other issues
• the degree of corruption prevalent in the country
• the stability of the country’s currency
• the competitiveness of the country’s tax policy

The problem is that there's an eighth category missing, "Knows more than fuck all about hard rock mining". If "Knows more than fuck all about hard rock mining" had been added to the survey, Peru would have caught up and probably passed Colombia (for one thing because it deserves double points,  what with the subject matter at hand and all that) and Colombia would have scored a big fat zero for "Knows more than fuck all about hard rock mining", or even negative because truly, the people running the show have shown, time and again over the last five years, that they know less than fuck all about hard rock mining. And that's a negative score, by definition.

So BD, as you might imagine it's kind of difficult to take your survey seriously, what with the basic level errors glaring at you from the top. I didn't get past page two, there really wasn't much point.

UPDATE: Dear Matson15, it's fucking Colombia with an "O", not fucking Columbia with a U. Please continue showing your ignorance in other locations, fuckwit.

Guillermo Moreno resigns

Argentina's Commerce Secretary, Guillermo Moreno, has reportedly handed in his resignation to Cristina. Be clear, this is a big move and signals deep changes coming to the CFK government.

Methinks that bump on the head has done the lady some good.

UPDATE: OK, this one is now confirmed. He's being put out to pasture as the Argentine Commercial Attaché Ambassador to Italy. Axel Kicillof's star is rising fast. As for a guess of the direction to come, look at the way Bolivia works with its CenBank.


Correction re Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v)

In yesterday's post, I stated in so many words that Thom Calandra has an investment relations deal with Bellhaven Copper & Gold (BHV.v). After exchanging mails this morning I'd like to state for the record that I am wrong and my words re BHV and Calandra yesterday are incorrect. It used to be the case that Calandra's Torrey Hills Capital company did IR work for BHV, but around the time of the change in management at Bellhaven the contract ended.

I'm very happy to correct myself on this score, because although it's been beaten down heavily I think that BHV is far from a lost cause, unlike many of the heavily hit explorecos out there. The fact that it's got rid of its connection with the two-faced lying cheating scumbag Calandra is a credit on the people who've taken over the day-to-day running of the company. However, I'm led to believe that Calandra still owns over 2m shares in the stock, which may be why he's keen on pumping it to his naive sheeplike readership. If he sells out, considering it a buying op in BHV like no other.

However, it's still a tough market for explorecos.

Snap Quiz Time!

The Question: When did Nevada Copper (NCU.to) reveal the contents of its 43-101 compliant feasibility study for the main open pit part of the Pumpkin Hollow project?



Gold: The bottom is in (part deux)

First Eric's SCP dumps its gold. Now a report that confirms gold can only go North from here. What follows is of course bizarre on several levels because it includes...

The government of Venezuela
Selling its gold bullion
To Goldman Sachs

...and you can let those three facts swirl around your brain for a while and come up with all sorts of fun things to write about, but lets keep our focus on the most important conclusion, that gold has to go up if things have come to this (translated):
The Venezuela Central Bank (BCV) and Goldman Sachs are ready to sign a foreign exchange agreement using gold held in international reserves, which will run between October 2013 and October 2020, according to the contract. 
The amount in the deal is the equivalent of 1.45 million ounces of gold which is held in the Bank of England vaults and the transfers would me made directly to Goldman Sachs once delivery times are confirmed. 
The deal consists of the delivery of the BCV gold, which would receive in return dollar from the US-based company. The transactions would run via a financial instrument negotiated through the international markets continues here



The Cochilco 2014 copper price forecast is out

How it happens is that Chile's official metals beancounter bureau goes round and asks a whole bunch of experts (or those who try to pass themselves off as experts) for a call on the price of copper, then throw all the SWAGs into a pot and announce the average of the 15 calls received. Then, according to the mouthbreather media that becomes "Cochilco's call for copper" and we then get to laugh at them in six months time when the average is out by a nautical mile.

Anyway, that's the preamble and now here's the news. Yesterday we got Cochilco's call on copper for 2014 and they're going for U$3.14/lb average in the year ahead. Find out more here, a link that will be of more benefit to those of you versed in the tongue of Cervantes.

Mining PRs and the Ottotrans™, part 78



Good morning to you, dear and appreciated reader of IKN. We are pleased to offer you part seventy-eight in our occasional series that tries, in its meek way, to make sense of the news releases offered to the world by mining companies. Today, our example comes from Alamos Gold (AGI.to) (AGI).

This is what they wrote
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Nov 19, 2013) -
All amounts are in United States dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX:AGI)(NYSE:AGI) ("Alamos" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the launch of its new corporate website.
The launch of our new website reflects the growth Alamos is experiencing as a company. Our Mulatos mine continues to perform well, we are advancing our development projects in Turkey and with the recent acquisitions of the Esperanza Gold Project in Mexico, and Quartz Mountain Property in Oregon, we have enhanced our peer leading growth profile.
With approximately $420 million in cash, no debt and strong ongoing cash flow generation we remain in an enviable position in the industry with a peer leading, fully funded growth profile, and the balance sheet strength and management depth to pursue additional growth opportunities. Please take the time to navigate through our new website at www.alamosgold.com.
About Alamos
 And this is what it means
TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Nov 19, 2013) -
All amounts are in United States dollars, unless otherwise stated.
Alamos Gold Inc. (TSX:AGI)(NYSE:AGI) ("Alamos" or the "Company") is pleased to announce the launch of its new corporate website.
The launch of our new website reflects the lack of imagination Alamos is experiencing as a company. Our website cost thirty grand to renew and although it doesn't contain any new information, the corporate photos have been updated and there's a 50% increase of those shots of cute smiling children, which always go down well. More importantly, we want to underscore how our corporate culture is stuck firmly in the past by making a big song and dance about a website upgrade, issuing this waste of space NR and patting ourselves on the back for the type of move that no company worth its salt in 2013 will ever make a fuss over. We are aware that the mining industry has no clue about tech or investor relations trends and we're proud to celebrate that fact by releasing non-news via Marketwired, Stockwatch and CNW.
With approximately $420 million in cash, no debt and strong ongoing cash flow generation we have more money than common sense and will continue to let the morons in our IR department waste it in any way they see fit. Please take the time to navigate through our new website at www.alamosgold.com.
About Alamos

11/18/13

Parabollocks

Bitcoin vs US Dollar, 12 months:



Parabolic blow-off, anyone? Or maybe you're about to tell me that this time it's different and unlike every other parabolic move in the history of finance and markets, this one won't crash back. Please write in and tell me about that, it would be so interesting.

Tough market for explorecos?

Yup, tough market.

This from October 24th:

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Oct. 24, 2013) -
Bellhaven Copper & Gold Inc. (TSX VENTURE:BHV) ("Bellhaven" or the "Company") announces that it intends to complete a non-brokered private placement financing of up to 26,000,000 units (the "Units") at a price of $0.05 per Unit for gross proceeds of up to $1,300,000 (the "Offering").
Each Unit consists of one common share (a "Common Share") and one Common Share purchase warrant (a "Warrant") of Bellhaven. Each Warrant entitles the holder to acquire one Common Share of the Company's stock at a price of $0.08 for a period of 36 months following the closing date of the Offering. The securities issued pursuant to the Offering will be continues here
VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Nov. 18, 2013) -
Bellhaven Copper & Gold Inc. (TSX VENTURE:BHV) ("Bellhaven" or the "Company") announces that, further to its news release of October 24, 2013, the Company has closed the initial tranche of its private placement, issuing 2,550,000 units for gross proceeds of $127,500. Continues here
Or in other words, a deeply discounted placement with a full warrant runs for nearly a month and attracts about 10% of the total book. Betcha Bellhaven is glad they spent all that money in getting proven junior mining fraudster Thom Calandra in as their retail promo guy; he's clearly making a difference to their fortunes and going the extra mile for BHV.



The one thing that never changes about a bullshit newsletter pump and dump scam...

...is that only the people at the centre of the scam know when the plug gets pulled.


Back in mid-September when PRD Energy (PRD.v) announced snags in the drill program, pumper in chief and centre of the bullshit ring Marin Katusa of Casey Research promised his obedient flock that PRD Energy would give up drill result news on its "Next Bakken" (but don't worry 'bout the enviro permits on Bakken-style production in Germany, guys, nothing to worry about I'm sure) by mid-October. And here we are in mid-November, with a distinct lack of news. 

But don't let it worry you, Casey faithful, I'm sure there's a logical reason for the delay and that everything will turn out just fine. 

Blind Faith

I'm a bit late to this, but I want to draw all readers' attention to Blind Faith, an article written by Brent Cook that you can find on this link over at Kitco. A really good overview about how mining companies, large and small, go about collecting samples and testing projects and most importantly, a rundown of the things that can, and often do, go wrong with the process. Educative and edifying, if you haven't caught it yet go see.

Chart of the day is...

...later than usual, because I've been fitting a brand new superduper high speed wi-fi internet service in the house this morning (well, in fact the two friendly and professional men did the fitting, I made the coffee). But the good news is that it's all fitted, fixed and working and my stars, it's a zippy connection now.

So anyhow, here's the gold/silver ratio, 2013 year to date:



Any mumbojumbo enthusiasts care to tell me why the black line decided to jump off the blue and the red line last week? I'd be interested in finding out.

11/17/13

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN237 has just been sent to subscribers. It contains more suspense than a Kubrik masterpiece

Chile: The Count




Polling stations are now closed, Chile does not allow exit poll results to be broadcast so all eyes are now on the official count, which you can follow on this link, the official State beancount website.

For what it's worth, at presstime and with 6.5% of the votes tallied Michelle Bachelet has 45.13% and nearest rival Matthei has 24.78%. We know 'Chelle will win, we want to know if she can make the 50%+1 vote barrier and wrap it all up today, in the first round.

UPDATE: It's looking like Bachelet will not pass the finishing post today and we'll need a second round run-off to sort things out. 20.31% of the votes counted and 'Chelle is still at 46.11%. The sample is beginning to be big enough to be representative.

UPDATE 2: 69.51% of votes counted and 'Chelle has 46.69%. Statistically it's all over, this one is going to a second round, assuming of course that Matthei doesn't throw in the towel.


What do you go for in a girl?

My thanks to supertwitterpal @karaspita for the headsup:



This is toppy-top topdrawer top of the tops. Two minutes of viewing and listening pleasure coming your way and all so true.

Peru Presidential Polling: Ollanta still down low

The Ipsos Peru benchmark monthly snapshot poll popularity thingy is out today. Ollanta gets 27% approval, 1% higher than last month but still not much to be proud about:


Mind you, he's more popular than Peru's congress which scores 11% approval. For what it's worth I'd expect Ollanta to be at ~40% come March 2014, patterns and all that.

The new model Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, CFK2.0, reappears tomorrow

Here's what to expect from CFK2.0 now that the surgical improvements have been bedded in:


The operation was a complete success.