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3/15/14

Screwtape Files is at its best...

...when fulfilling the following criteria:

1) Ripping into Eric Sprott
2) Ripping into Kind World News
3) Ripping into dubious chart-speak and technical analysis bunkum
4) Providing more reasonable chart analysis in its place*

All of which is found in today's example, which makes this Screwtape post a must-read. 

*Yes, even your TA-sceptic author is open to reason and logical arguments based on charts. Occasionally.

IKN Recommends: Junior Gold Miner Seeker

The blog is called Junior Gold Miner Seeker, it's linked here and it's doing a fine job of curation in the gold juniors sector. You'll find all sorts of links to articles from print media, videos (Kitco, BNN etc) and other sources that cover the junior precious metals sector (silver and PGMs aplenty, it's not just pure gold).

It's recommended reading for anyone into the juniors as one-stop for the news and views of experts and commentators. Here's the link again, go use it. You'll also find the link over on our blogroll from now on.

3/14/14

Special weekend bonus track

The superb Codex, by Radiohead:



From the album The King of Limbs.

The Friday OT: Radiohead; Everything in its right place

An uplifting, snappy foot-tapper that'll have you whizzing into the weekend.

First Quantum (FM.to) has a strike on its hands at Panama Cobre today

Word reaches your author from people with their ears very close to the specific ground of problems at the First Quantum (FM.to) massive 'Panama Cobre' project in eponymous country, where workers are going on strike today.

You'll hear about it later in Breaking News Exclusive updates from your brokerage, for sure.


Ten days

Ten days ago on IKN:

"If your chosen analyst, broker or fund manager can't recognize the start of a bull market when it's placed right before their very eyes, underlined, highlighted and lit up in bright neon letters (or simply refuses to tell you because you're an unimportant retailer and they need to place the big money first) then you need to stop listening to the dumbass and find somebody who'll make you money. The time for caution has passed."

Ten day chart of GLD, GDX. GDXJ:


So, in ten days since you heard plain words on the zero-insight bullshit being peddled at PDAC by those  supposed experts, gold's up 4%, GDX is up 8% and GDXJ is up 11% Your 'umble scribe rests his case, m'lud. 

The El Salvador Presidential election mess explained by Tim Muth

The fall-out from the über-tight El Salvador election continues and what with all the legal challenges made by ARENA against the wafer-thin FMLN victory, no winner has been officially declared as yet. Tim over at his El Salvador blog continues his smart coverage and analysis of the situation, with the latest post up today explaining where things stand and what we can expect in the near future. Well worth your time if you're into Central American affairs.

The re-emergence of "Gold's in a bubble": Please stop the stupid

And the best way to stop the stupid is to throw hard facts at it. Here comes another chart that might have turned up in your preferred brokerage's weekly reviews if I hadn't scribbled all over it:


Today's plain facts include:
  • GLD holdings started 2013 at over 1,350 metric tonnes.
  • They bottomed out on January 14th at 789.56mt
  • They've recovered to 813.3mt since then, which isn't a bad move and the clear change of a trend (the 24 tonnes difference is roughly a billion dollars worth of gold at a U$1,300/oz average, to give you some idea). But a bubble forming? Please, give us all a break.



Chart of the day is...

...the gold/silver ratio, 12 months:


And as usual, the selective amnesia of technical analysts has kicked in. If you want a bit of boredom in your day, ask any of the specialists who told you silver would fly once gold broke U$1,360/oz what went wrong. They'll answer with a whole bunch of terms, but "i was wrong" won't figure in their answer.

Anyway, today's chart comes with a sound effect: That muffled thudding sound you hear in the background is caused by silverbugs, all a-stomping of their feet and muttering that it isn't jolly well fair.

3/13/14

Photo taken yesterday Wednesday

Avast, me hearties:


Full details of about a most interesting site visit undertaken by your humble scribe in The IKN Weekly, out this Sunday.

B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) and this month's shortest blog post

Gramalote sucks.

3/12/14

Haywood: Are we good?

Yep, we're good.


All's well that ends well.

3/11/14

Where Haywood Securities gets its source material

Your humble scribe has taken a closer than normal look at his stats counter today. Here's what came up:


OK Tognetti, as your girls and boys are using IKN as source material and now blatantly ripping off the work here as their own, let's do a deal: You pay me for the work I'm doing for you, and I don't tell you to go fuck yourself and your cheap little rip-off brokerage every day.

Or of course the more equitable alternative, you or your underling can write that mail and apologize. Your call, bigshot.

There's only one problem with this "iron ore down, copper down so therefore gold will go down" theory...

...that certain corners of the metaloblogosphere are currently attempting to promote:


Y'know...details...

People, the sooner you realize that we're at the start of a bull market for gold stocks, and the sooner you stop listening to the market experts who are snaffling up the best prices while telling the greenhorns to be cautious (they'll get you in later when they're fully positioned), the better it will be for your back pocket. Or as stated to subbers this weekend (end of intro section piece):
"So yes, of course there’s still a lot of nerves about and people telling you to be cautious; thing is that’s what happens at the beginning of a bull market. In fact it can’t possibly be any other way, because a fully confident sector would have already pushed stocks and valuations higher and be in the mature phase of the cycle. 
 "In the end, to follow and be interested in this most volatile of market sectors you have to be a speculator at heart, it’s necessary to take risks. For well over a year it’s been tough going for juniors and a lot of share prices have been crushed. As a result, it’s been a heads-down, no-peeking-over-parapets markets for a long time and in my personal case, no commitment of larger cash (while keeping interest via the shorting of some stocks and some smaller, nearer-term trading ideas in punctual situations). That time is now past at The IKN Weekly, it’s time to get bullish and longer, take more risk on board and hold for longer periods. Big gains await those who can see out the first rougher periods of a bull market, that’s where we are today."


PS: Now on the road for a couple of days. Posting light til Friday.

Chart of the day is...

...uranium, from here:


It beggars belief that the U-pump crowd are assuming the Japan policy news hasn't been baked in already, too. This whole spec is based on wishful thinking about a metal that's not going anywhere, folks. Beware the crowdspeak.

3/10/14

Iron ore prices

The key is in the volume.


The type of thing Zerohedge and Business Insider would have you worry about, so feel all worried if you want to feel all worried. They earn their money from your fear, after all.

El Salvador: The day after a very tight election

Recommended English language reading over at Tim's El Salvador Blog, where our host wraps up the events, analyzes the results and looks to what we can expect. A good overview that quickly gets you wise on the issue.

And a jolly good morning to the rip-off artist at Haywood, too

Haywood people, listen up:

1) You're welcome to read the blog
2) You're even welcome to use its crappy two-bit contents as inspiration for your analysis and content to clients
3) But you directly rip off content without correct attribution and you're simply a bunch of cunts.

Are we clear?

This from today's Haywood mailer to clients, "The Haymaker" (screenshot taken from author's mailbox), which goes out to several dozens hundreds yeah probably a very lot of people every weekday:


Recognize that chart? I do, because I freakin' well created it (from the raw data provided by PDAC, for which I correctly credited) and then I put it on the blog here, dated March 6th.


Feel free to apologize at your leisure, Haywood. Or if you prefer, suffer the consequences.

UPDATE: Oh dear. Via reader D your author learns that the same chart was included in the March 7th "Haywood Weekly Dig" pdf as well (page four). And again, no correct credit given. Would you like me to bill you for the data compilation services, Mr Tognetti?

IKN extends a warm welcome to Macquarie employees

On checking the stats at back office this morning* your humble scribe was rather surprised to note the number of hits coming in from people at various offices of Macquarie Holdings, Canada USA Oz and London among the visitors. Therefore to make all of your lives easier and let you get on with other things, here comes the pro-tip:

I know what you're looking for, but you won't find it on the open blog. Subscribers only stuff, people. 

Have a nice day.



*why it occurs to me to do it on a Monday morning then completely forget the rest of the week is a bit of a mystery to me, but that's how it seems to happen.

Chart of the day is...

...the relative performance of gold (GCJ4), silver (SIK4) and copper (HGK4), 2014 year to date, via their futures contracts:


Silver can't decide whether it's precioussssssssssss or industrial again. That's a warning sign.

Copper dropping again tonight

Here's the latest:

Weak export numbers from China, plus that rate cut spooking the market.



3/9/14

El Salvador's Presidential election 2nd round vote: Trouble brewing

Today has seen El Salvador's 2nd round run-off election between the governing FMLN party and opposition ARENA. Everyone expected FMLN to win fairly easilt, but that's not the case, as right now with 1.2% 0.96% of the votes left to be tallied, FMLN has 50.08% 50.07% and ARENA 49.92% 49.93%. That's less than 4,500 4,400 votes to decide who gets to be President and close = problems.

(note: those strikeouts are the updated figures and give you an idea of how darned close this one is)

That's because the right wing ARENA candidate Norman Quijano has just denounced voter fraud, declared himself the winner and has called on the armed forces to intervene. This is not good.

Follow the vote count here at the official government page.

Mike at Central American Politics is strong on El Salvador and can be found here.

Tim's El Salvador Blog is a great info site for English language news on the country. That's here.

Update: It looks as though left wing FMLN has squeaked it, but right wing ARENA is bound to kick up a big fuss over this result. El Salvador is a place to watch for potential instability in the next few days (though I sincerely hope not)

The IKN Weekly, out now


good arrows my son!

IKN252 has just been sent to subscribers. Selling a position, preparing to buy others

Wowsers! Honduras government abolishes over 10,000 NGOs

Yes, that says ten thousand. Imagine if Rafael Correa pulled a stunt like that in Ecuador! Even with just a tenth of the numbers, you wouldn't hear the last of it.

Anyway, find out about this eyepopping move in your preferred English language over at Honduras Culture and Politics blog.

Belo Sun (BSX.to) in the Globe & Mail

With thanks for the headsup to reader RC, this link goes to a long note on Belo Sun (BSX.to) in today's G&M and its trials and tribulations in trying to get its Volta Grande project in Brazil off the ground. An interesting article.

Fair to call it a thinking person's pump job.

Colombia votes its new Congress today

Polls are now open in Colombia's Congressional election. A good overview in English is available at Colombia Reports, right here. Your extract from the piece is...
“This election is different, it is distinctive, it is the most important congressional election in the last fifty years in our country,” said Liberal Party (Partido Liberal-LP) Senator Juan Manuel Galan, who is seeking re-election.