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11/15/14

Imperial Metals (III.to) filed its 3q14 financials at nine minutes past nine on the evening of Friday November 14th

Which surprised me, because you would have thought they'd want everyone to read everything they had to say about Mount Polley at a more reasonable hour. Also interesting is how stacked the Forward-Looking Statements is on this one (one of the rare occasions when the reader needs to pay attention to this bit). It's almost as if the company lawyers have gone through the whole document with a fine tooth comb and made sure that...nah, surely not.

Must be tough to want to say something as upbeat as possible while the beagles are telling you to avoid any sentence, phrase, word or comma that could cause a class action down the line.



Marcelo Bielsa

There's nobody like Marcelo Bielsa. Today, an anecdote told by Roberto Abbondanzieri, ex-goalie of Boca and the Argentina national team. 

In 2006 Abbondanzieri was recovering from an injury, when one day a hand written letter arrived at the training ground at Getafe, the team he was playing for at the time. Bielsa had written him a get well soon letter that offered moral support and was, "A wonderful gesture" according to the goalkeeper. But Bielsa had also been the manager of the Argentina national team in 2004 when they'd lost the final of the Copa America to Brazil on penalties, after the match had ended 2-2 in normal time. Roberto Abbondanzieri was goalkeeper for the team that day and Bielsa, two years later, couldn't help but ask him at the end of his letter of moral support just why he'd only put three players in a wall instead of four for a free kick that ended in one of the Brazil goals. 

11/14/14

Breaking: Friday morning, November 14th, and Steve Letwin is still Pres/CEO of IAMGOLD (IMG.to) (IAG)

Regular reader and mailpal 'Hammer' writes in with:

Maybe its just mental masturbation but maybe a list of the miners that have assets but are mismanaged is in order.  IAG perhaps would top your list.
Well Hammer, I don't really think so because there are others to mention in the same breath. For just a few examples...

Barrick, but the thing is the ABX CEO "was resigned".
Kinross, but the thing is the K CEO "was resigned".
Newmont, but the thing is the NEM CEO "was resigned".

...and you see where I'm going with this, Hammer?

Canadian brokerages are not part of the solution for the mining industry

They're part of the problem:



I chose these eight roughly at random by dialing up reports stuck in my mailbox in the last few days and checking at the end of each one, to see what percentage of each house's universe was rated "sell" or "reduce" by the Canadian brokerage or securities firm in question*. I could have added more houses but I got bored after the first eight, the pattern's clear enough.

The result: They rarely call sell. So why should that be, when faced with the cold hard reality of what the mining sector's been going through? Your multiple choice options are
  • No balls
  • No idea
  • No education
  • Corrupt
  • All of the above

*NB; note that houses such as Macquarie or Canaccord were rated on their Canadian ops alone, not Australian/UK/USA/etc branches or sectors other than mining.

The Friday OT: King Kurt; Destination Zululand

The definitive Psychobilly hit, live version 1983 or so. I owned the single (which did come out in 1983). It played from the inside out, so you had to put the stylus in the middle of the 45, then make sure you were around to catch it as it fell off at the end of the song. Good ol' Smeg, ruining diamond styluses around the world that year.


Come on boys jump in the van 

USD long is now a very crowded trade

As is my normal weekday morning I've flicked through several biz oriented sites, some in Spanish, others in English. Countries of original include Chile, Argentina, Canada, Colombia, USA, Mexico, as well as international bizwire services. Every single one, somewhere on the front page, tells me how the US Dollar's going higher from here. And yes, Deborah, my contrary flags are fluttering this morning.

UPDATE:

UPDATE 2: Friday afternoon:

Nice job on Reservoir (RMC.v) by Kip Keen of Mineweb

Right here.

Good note, mister kip.

Chart of the day is...

...the five year LME warehouse copper stocks chart:



Because it goes with this Andy Home report filed yesterday, "The hidden hand in the global copper market".  Here's an extract, but do make a point of reading all this one:
In the short term, it represents a red flag for those expecting further Chinese economic weakness to translate into lower copper prices.
It's clear that any further price declines, say toward $6,000 per ton, are going to incentivize the bureau to buy still more metal.
Which is not to say the price can't go lower, just that if it does, existing tensions in LME stocks and spreads are likely to accentuate.
In the next two years, might the SRB simply suck in all this market's expected surplus?
Ever since the bureau first showed signs of activity late last year, there has been consistent talk in the Chinese market that it is working toward an end-2015 target of having around 2 million tonnes of copper.
Of course, we don't know what the starting-point was, but it now seems fair to assume that it will buy something like a million tonnes over the course of 2014 and 2015.
That would account for most analysts' expected cumulative surplus over those two years.




11/13/14

B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) 3q14 financials: Much fun

Here's the P+L:


Oh, looky that, a 39c EPS loss on the quarter thanks to a near $300m hit on goodwill from Masbate ($202m) and Gramalote ($96m). Which looks bad, but it might not be all the kitchen sink yet either. For those who care, once you throw in Papillon the new balance sheet puts P/BV at U$2.55, so with bTG closing at U$1.58 this evening either there's more write downs to come or the market is underpricing BTO bigtime. Or both, as maybe the truth lies somewhere between the two (my best guess).

Gran Colombia Gold 3q14 results: Don't read the news release, read the filings

To be honest the NR that Serafino Iacono's Gran Colombia Gold (GCM.to) offered us on its 3q14 financials tonight isn't exactly a barrel of laughs either, as it reports lower than expected production and an unexpected rise in All In Costs from 2q14 (don't get fooled by the wordsmith who wrote the NR, because it's gone up from $1,203/oz to $1,216/oz). 

NB: Please note cut-down Y-axis, done to show contrasts and not to try and fool you

But the NR glosses over the real problems at GCM, which you'll find on the balance sheet rather than any nominal quarterly profit or loss, G&A reduction or blahblah. Here's a chart...


 ...which shows you how little cash GCM.to has. And here's another...


...pointing you in the necessary direction to the real problem, because the working cap position is going from bad to worse and a full-on cash crunch is now a question of when, rather than if. But it's only when you open up the MD&A and read it that the scale of the upcoming back passage intercourse coming the way of equity holders becomes fully apparent. Read this, read it all, it's from the GCM 3q14 MD&A filed this evening, it's why this share price is going to nothing, it's your fundies analysis case study of the week:

Liquidity and Capital Resources
After using the remaining $3.0 million of the net proceeds from the March 2014 equity offering during the third quarter of 2014 to fund working capital and capital expenditures at the Segovia Operations, the Company’s cash position stood at $0.5 million at September 30, 2014. In addition, the Company had $0.8 million of cash in trust from the Gold Notes to fund the monthly interest payment on the Gold Notes at the end of October 2014.

To continue as a going concern, the Company must generate profitable operations in the future through its planned capital investments, including the completion of the modernization and mechanization of its Segovia Operations and resultant increase in cash flow from mineral production, or continue to secure new funding. While the Company has cash flow from operations, this may not be sufficient to fund the Company’s working capital requirements, including debt service, and the planned capital investment program not previously funded by the Gold Notes. The Company has a working capital deficit at September 30, 2014 (as described below) and, as such, it will need to pursue additional financing or delay discretionary expenditures which may have an impact on the rate of future growth in its mineral production and its ability to meet its working capital requirements.

At September 30, 2014, the Company had a working capital deficit, excluding the Gold Notes cash in trust, of approximately $69.9 million, up from $50.2 million at December 31, 2013. Key components of this working capital deficit at September 30, 2014 include:

·          Cash - $0.5 million; as a result of the impact on operating cash flow of lower gold prices and lower than previously expected gold production from the Segovia Operations, cash is being turned over quickly to meet working capital requirements, including supplier payment programs and debt service, and capital expenditures.

·          Accounts receivable - $13.0 million, including $11.3 million of recoverable taxes, predominantly outstanding VAT refunds in Colombia, $6.6 million of which are past due as of September 30, 2014. Despite the Company’s diligent efforts to meet the requirements of the VAT refund process in Colombia, it has continued to experience difficulty and delays in receiving overdue VAT refunds related to the Segovia Operations. Accounts payable and accrued liabilities at September 30, 2014 include approximately $3.0 million of supplier withholding taxes that the Company understood, based on the processing of prior VAT refund claims in 2013 by the local tax authority, would be deducted from its pending VAT refund claims when settled by the local tax authority in 2014. However, the Company has been advised subsequent to the applicable VAT reporting periods that it must pay the supplier withholding taxes in advance of receiving its VAT refunds. The Company is currently in discussion with the local tax authority to remedy the situation so the Company and the local tax authority can settle the existing balances outstanding between them. In the meantime, the Company has been paying its monthly supplier withholding taxes since the beginning of the third quarter of 2014 and is awaiting resolution of this matter in order to file additional VAT refund claims for a total of $3.8 million. This situation is beyond control of the Company and is exacerbating the Company’s cash flow situation in this low gold price environment.

·          Accounts payable and accrued liabilities - $43.3 million, including approximately $3.0 million of supplier withholding taxes (as described above) and $4.8 million related to capital expenditures. As previously disclosed, the Company had arranged payment plans with certain significant suppliers to relieve pressure in managing the supplier relationships while it completes the Pampa Verde project at its Segovia Operations. Although the Company is currently continuing to service these payment plans, in response to the impact on operating cash flow of the lower gold prices, lower than expected gold production at Segovia and the VAT refund situation as described above, the Company is having to make alterations to these plans in certain cases to ensure it meets all of its obligations.

·          Amounts payable for acquisitions of exploration and evaluation assets - $15.2 million related to the Marmato Project. The Company made payments amounting to $0.6 million under these agreements in the first nine months of 2014. The Company is making slow but steady progress in its process of negotiating extensions to the current contractual terms of the various mining titles acquisition and compensation agreements.

·          Current portion of equity tax payable - $6.6 million, of which $3.1 million represents the final payments due for the Segovia Operations and is expected to be paid from the net proceeds of the pending VAT refund claims when settled. The balance of the equity tax payable relates to the Marmato and Zancudo Projects. The Company is continuing in its effort to implement payment plans to settle these obligations, although there can be no assurance such payment plans can be arranged.

·          Short-term debt - $1.2 million representing amounts drawn by the Company’s 60%-owned CIIGSA refinery operation in Colombia under a revolving credit line (see also “Financing Activities – Colombian Debt Facilities”). As previously mentioned, the Company is working towards a potential sale of its refinery investment and expects that the purchaser will assume this short-term debt as a condition of the sale.

·          Current portion of long-term debt - $30.3 million, up from $4.3 million at the end of 2013 to include the expected principal amount payable under the Gold Notes ($18.8 million) from the first three quarterly put options that come due at the end of January, April and July 2015 and the first estimated repayment of 10% of the principal amount of the Silver Notes ($9.0 million) due in August 2015.

·          Current portion of provisions - $2.2 million, representing ongoing monthly payments of approximately $0.1 million to fund the acquired health care obligation in the Segovia Operations and $1.1 million related to the payments expected to be paid over the next 12 months under a payment plan still to be arranged with Corantioquia, the local environmental authority, related to the environmental discharge fees at Segovia. 

Got all that on board? And on the way I hope you paid special attention to the second last bullet point in the list, the "current portion of long-term debt" bit. 

Any further questions on GCM.to and its financials should be directed to the people that pumped this de-facto bankrupt waste of time and money to you back when it was cool. Along with the obvious snake-oil salesman Serafino, their names are Tommy Humphreys and Thom Calandra and they're the scumballs who get rich by ripping you off and then claiming innocence later.





They tell me Steve Letwin, CEO of IAMGOLD (IMG.to) (IAG), appeared on BNN this morning

Yup, here's the segment, which comes with...

We dig into the latest quarterly results from a gold miner that's been cutting costs in the wake of a slumping price for bullion. Frances speaks with Steve Letwin, President and CEO about the company's recent move to cut its executive team by 40%, and what his plans are as the head of IAMGOLD.
...as a blurb and "IAMGOLD CEO: The board will decide whether I stay or go" as a title. And here's how the share price reacted:


Because this afternoon, Steve Letwin is still CEO. And he talked total bollocks on live TV.

IKN thanks reader JG for the headsup

Biiwii does a gold sector review

And as you'd expect from Gary T, it's an excellent read. Fully recommended and right here on this link.

Minera IRL (MIRL.L) (IRL.to) news

Today's NR:

LIMA, PERU--(Marketwired - Nov 12, 2014) - Minera IRL Limited ("Minera IRL" or the "Company"), (IRL.TO) (MIRL.L) (MIRL.L), the Latin America gold mining company, is announcing that it has reported financial and operating results for the quarter ended 30 September 2014.

The Company is also providing notice that senior management will host an analyst and investor conference call on Thursday, 13 November 2014, at 10 am PET (Lima), 10 am EST (Toronto) and 3 pm GMT (London). All amounts are in United States dollars ("$"), unless stated otherwise.

HIGHLIGHTS

ESTRAGON: Nothing to be done.
VLADIMIR: I'm beginning to come round to that opinion. All my life I've tried to put it from me, saying Vladimir, be reasonable, you haven't yet tried everything. And I resumed the struggle.  So there you are again.
ESTRAGON: Am I?
VLADIMIR: I'm glad to see you back. I thought you were gone forever.
ESTRAGON: Me too.
Continues here

Professional CFA qualified brokerage analysts who have not been paying attention, Cormark and First Majestic (AG) (FR.to) edition

Today's "winner" is Graeme Jennings of Cormark, who starts his piece on First Majestic today November 13th 2014 by stating:

 First Majestic offers investors access to the “purest” silver producer, with approximately 90% of its revenue attributed to silver.
....to which Owly says...

....because of this:


Thing is Graeme, once upon a time your investment thesis may have been true but we are now in the Year Of Our Lord 2014 and nowadays silver is only 76% of FR.to revenues. It's been under 90% since the end of 2012, Graeme. In other words, anyone who knows anything about this company would have stopped reading your lame report after paragraph one, because getting the basics right is...errr...basic.

UPDATE: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen visitors from Cormark:


We at IKN hope you have a pleasant day at the office and get to do many things that help forward the cause of humanity.

Oracle Mining (OMN.to): Oracle Ridge picked up for peanuts by Red Kite CORRECTED

First shareholders are anally violated, then private equity comes in and scoops up. It's evolution, baby.

As RK and its spin-out firms tend to be good at USA mine projects and also politically sensitive projects, this deal fits on more than one level. As for OMN.to management, it's obviously not great for equity holders but to be honest I can't blame them, they have a mine to build and selling your sould for rock'n'roll is the only way these days. NR here.

CORRRECTION: My bad, RK Equity isn't nor is it affiliated to Red Kite. Silly mistake, done by assuming rather than reading.

Golden Star (GSS) (GSC.to) has not received the memo: WE ARE TIRED OF JUNIOR MINER BULLSHIT

Today's PEA announcement from Golden Star (GSS) (GSC.to) is today's microcosm of just why the world of money and investment is pig sick of the assholes running junior mining companies. We can do this in three short bullet points:


2) We then read a little later on that it's a five year life of mine project. Remember that number, five years.

3) And then, once we've wasted our time ploughing through the stodge of words, we get to this part that covers the capital required:



Get that? You're going to need $94m in capital here, not $40m. Therefore let us make two things perfectly crystalline in their clarity so that even the zombies running GSS understand.

A) It's a five year life of mine project. There's no difference whatsoever between "initial capital" and "sustaining capital" in that type of timeframe. It's capital, got it? Capital. Plain capital.

B) Sam Coetzer, President and CEO of Golden Star, and all the people working with him can fuck the fuck right off.

11/12/14

Welcome to the Mines and Money Laundering conference, 2014

Via kinder reader R, this is way too good not to share.


2) Scroll or click down to the 'News' section.
3) Pick the NR dated August 21st, all about Mines and Money London 2014 (well, it should be at least)
4) See this.


Have a pleasant day.

Update Thursday 13th November: Ah, we hear that Elysium has corrected its website so now the only evidence of its wonderfulness is the screenshot above.

A bad typo in The Gold Report today

They can't spell Shyster correctly, put Schuster instead.

In this Q&A, some corrupt dickhead named Thomas Shyster Schuster recommends only the following five stocks: Source Exploration (SOP.v), Integra Gold (ICG.v), Rockhaven Resources (RK.v), Golden Arrow Resources (GRG.v...fkn Joe Grosso!) and Niocorp Developments (NB.v). No others get the highlight or the kind word, while all those five are apparently red hot deals in the making.

At the end we read the following about Mr Shyster:
I personally am, or my family is, paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: Golden Arrow Resources Corp. My company has a financial relationship with the following companies mentioned in this interview: Golden Arrow Resources Corp., Source Exploration Corp., NioCorp Developments Ltd., Rockhaven Resources Ltd. and Integra Gold Corp. 
Yup, every one a winner. Seriously, didn't these snake oil people go out with the end of the 20th century?

Argentina continues to make life difficult for mining companies (from IKN287)

Here's one of the shorter segments from IKN287, out last Sunday November 9th, that had a look at a trend (re)developing in the Argentina precious metals producer patch.

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Argentina precious metals sales lagging again
It’s not something that’s being widely advertised by those companies working there (no surprise) but after seeing the MUX and TRY numbers come in then checking through a couple of other filings, there’s a clear trend re-emerging of a lag in precious metals sales compared to production in mines operating in Argentina. Here are some numbers for your consideration:

From McEwen Mining (MUX) 3q14 filings: Minera Santa Cruz
Gold produced: 48.6k oz
Silver produced: 1,535 k oz
Gold Sales: 37.0k oz
Silver Sales: 1,149k oz
Production/Sales lag gold: 23.9%
Production/Sales lag silver: 25.1%

From Troy Resources (TRY.to) (TRY.ax) 3q14 filings (i.e. to Sep 30): Casposo mine
Gold produced: 15.22k oz
Gold Sales: 11.46k oz
Silver produced: 734.9k oz
Silver Sales: 574.8k oz
Production/Sales lag gold: 24.7%
Production/Sales lag silver: 21.8%

From Yamana Gold (YRI.to) (AUY) 3q14 filings: Gualcamayo mine
Gold produced: 43.1k oz
Gold Sales: 40.1k oz
Production/Sales lag: 7.0%

From Barrick (ABX) 3q14 filings: Veladero mine
Gold produced: 178k oz
Gold Sales: 166k oz
Production/Sales lag: 6.75%

From AngloGold Ashanti (AU) 3q14 filings: Cerro Vanguardia mine
Gold produced: 62k oz
Gold Sales: 54k oz
Production/Sales lag: 12.9%

All figures taken from company filings (SEDAR, LSE, NYSE). Now some of those numbers are more acceptable than others, for example the Gualcamayo production/sales lag of just 3k oz gold would be acceptable under normal circumstances, as long as the lag gets made up next quarter. The 12k lag at ABX Veladero looks a little too large for comfort in absolute terms (after all it’s about $15m worth of metal), but a company the size of ABX can swallow that easily enough without it affecting bottom line results to any significant extent.

But Cerro Vanguardia couldn’t sell 13% of its gold, Minera Santa Cruz (49% MUX, 51% Hochschild (HOC.L) couldn’t sell 24% and 25% of its gold and silver, Troy at Casposo couldn’t sell 25% and 22% of its gold and silver. I do not believe in coincidences.

Back in 2013 mining companies along with other export oriented companies in Argentina complained bitterly about the barriers to exit for the goods and remittances for revenues, with reports of long delays and suchlike. The government promised to improve things and for a while that happened, but it looks as though the lag is back again. Less of a problem for the small player, more of a problem for companies such as TRY and MUX who are dependent on the cash flow from their mines. Even HOC could be feeling the pinch.

The 2014 Puskás Award nominees for the best goal of the year

Today FIFA posted up the 10 shortlisted goals vying to be 2014 goal of the year. Go see the page and all the goals right here (or here if you prefer your words in Spanish).

For the record, this humble corner of cyberspace confidently predicts that Colombia's James Rodríguez will win for his (1st) goal against Uruguay in the 2014 World Cup Finals. If you want to know why, check out the video of his goal and pay special attention to the moment when 0:21 turns to 0:22 on the recording; it's before he even collects the ball. Also for what it's worth, this humble corner of cyberspace has called the last three winners of the award correctly. And this year's is just as easy.

Kinross Gold (K.to) (KGC): A kind soul today reminded your author...

...of the post here at IKN dated February 27th 2014: It went like this:


So now let's check on how Special K has done from that very date to this:


Hmmmm.....

Holy crap, Philae landed on the comet!

Wow.

See here

Update: This is my head ever since the news

G&A costs per ounce of gold: A comparative

The idea here is to get a handle on which junior mining company is running a tight ship and keeping G&A costs tight in Q3, as well as seeing which junior mining company was taking the piss with its G&A and spending way too much of your money on its own extravagances. Therefore the following:

  • We pick a bunch of juniors, mostly goldies but a few silver mining companies too.
  • We take the gold or gold equivalent ounce production total for each one (and in the case of the silver miners, we convert silver to gold equivalent ounces at 70:1).
  • We check out the quarterly G&A figure as posted by each company.
  • We do the math.
  • We also add in a couple of majors as a guideline, to show what the bigger boy companies typically run as a ounce-per-G&A ratio. The examples are Kinross (K) and Barrick (ABX), and their results are typical of the majors' sector.

So here's the chart:


Rio Alto (RIO.to) (RIOM) comes in very low due to some specific factors for 3q14, but it typically a low ratio for all its quarters and wouldn't get over $30/oz normally.
Endeavour Mining (EDV.to) is clearly efficient in its offices, good job done.
The majors' type average is around $55/oz to $65/oz, so any junior which emulates that level is doing well. Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK)and Richmont Mines (RIC.to) qualify, Lake Shore Gold (LSG.to) at a pinch).
The acceptable limit? Let's say $100/oz.
Argonaut (AR.to) isn't shy about spending money in its offices, apparently.
Gold Resource Corp (GORO) is a joke.

PS: What, the table? Yeah sure, here you go:

Ticker 3q14 G&A ($m) Oz Au or AuEq prod $ G&A/oz
RIO 0.777 56368 13.78
EDV 4.12 117612 35.03
KGC 38.2 701088 54.49
EDR 2.165 37465 57.79
ABX 98 1650000 59.39
RIC 1.578 23187 68.06
LSG 3.281 45600 71.95
FVI 3.467 35520 97.61
GPR 1.289 12285 104.92
TGD 3.062 26671 114.81
FR 5.27 41073 128.31
AR 3.334 22980 145.08
GORO 4.361 17262 252.64
in case of silver mines, conversion to AuEq done at 70/1

A sentiment guide for the metals and mining market

Bottom of the bear market: Nobody gives a fuck about any metal.

First signs of recovery: People start giving a fuck about gold.

Signs of recovery: People start giving a fuck about copper.

Recovery sets in: People start giving a fuck about silver, uranium.

Recovery: People start giving a fuck about zinc, nickel, lead.

Bullish sentiment: People start giving a fuck about palladium.

Market now fully bullish: People start giving a fuck about rare earths, lithium.

Top of the bull market: Rhodium!

First Majestic's (AG) (FR.to) foray into the futures market

Let's see how they got on.

This from the NR dated October 14th:

As a result of this weakness, the Company decided to temporarily suspend silver sales in an attempt to maximize future profits. This suspension of sales will result in lower revenues and earnings for the third quarter, however, it is likely that these inventories of unsold ounces will instead be sold in the fourth quarter. As of September 30, 2014, approximately 934,000 ounces of silver were held in inventory.

This from today's 3q14 financials announcement NR:
Subsequent to quarter end, the Company sold all 934,000 ounces of silver that it held over from the third quarter for an average price of $17.29 per ounce increasing the cash balance by $16.1 million
Moral: Don't give up your day job, Keith.

As for the rest of the financials, have to say that they weren't quite as bad as I'd modelled. For example the net loss at $10.5m compared to my guesstimate of negative $12m. Still crappy though, FR will have to deliver on the now highly signalled cost reductions for Q4.

PS: Just one more small thing about that silver futures speculation, with table taken from the Kitco page here:

11/11/14

One...Million...Dollars

Well, one million and thirty-eight thousand, four hundred to be exact. Pre-commish.

A million here, two million there, soon adds up to...err, three million.



The good news is that Eric The Half A Bull still has 3,490,100 units of PHY left to play with. So play.

Bayfield (BYV.v) thoughts

Over at mailbox I've been asked to comment on the New Gold (NGD) friendly deal for Bayfield (BYV.v) once too often to remain quiet, so here are a few thoughts. Don't worry, you won't like them:

After hearing of the deal yesterday morning, my reaction was that it was opportunistic and the stock, BYV.v, might even be a buy on the potential for a competing bidder or a sweetener to see it through. It's obviously a low bid and one that's shareholder unfriendly (for BYV holders, anyway). I wrote as much to three or four people as well, while mulling over a speculative buy. Then I got to thinking some more and went off the idea, which is why I didn't buy and didn't send any alerts to subscribers either.

New Gold wants it less for the geology, more for the geography. The deposit is a dog, though it's possible that some of the high grading spots can be added into the Rainy River pit design. Mister Randy Elephant is paying $16m or so (well, he's not, it's paper) for the location, not the mineralization.

Bayfield's management have always been bullshit merchants of the highest order and woefully inept at adding shareholder value. The only thing they've ever been good at is suckering in the naive, so yesterday's friendly deal (oh, officers have "locked up" under 4% of the shares on a 2/3rds acceptance deal, well done guys) was just the icing on that particular cake.

Therefore, those shareholders who've held this thing all the way down and are now complaining about being hung out to dry are mouthbreathers to begin with, the type that buy in because that corrupt asshole Louis James told them it was a great buy at 90c and $1.30 all those years ago. C'mon guys, are you seriously telling me that you bought into that $1.40 flow thru, then rode the thing down to 10c and 15c, and only now has the penny dropped that you were ripped off by a management team in cahoots with a bunch of pump'n'dumpers? If so you deserve what's coming to you, good and hard.

Which brings us to the cries of disgust emanating from the herds of bagholders and "surely we can do something". Well yes you can and what's more, it's easy. First you get together and raise enough capital, then you put in a competing bid for what you think it's worth, and then you see if Randy Elephant puts in a better offer. 

What, you can't do that? You don't have $20m, or the means to raise $20m or so in order to start a bidding war? Or you can't convince somebody with $20m or $25m or $50m or whateveryoupretenditmightbeworthmillion to start competing against NGD? Well there's a shocker, that might be something to do with the godawful shitstate of the junior exploreco market dontchathink?

And that's where NGD's bid comes in. BYV has dropped and dropped and dropped until it got to the point where Mister Randy Elephant decided the thing was cheap enough to bother with. There's no other logical buyer (check the maps) and anyone who gets into a fight would be doing it expressly to make NGD pay more, with the risk that if they walk away they're left with their very own white (randy) elephant. Want to gamble $20m to win $5m and risk losing that capital on a piece of shit property, while annoying someone you shouldn't annoy who'll find a way of screwing you a few years down the line? Nah, me neither. 

Point is NGD knows it's the only game in town and has no fiduciary duty towards the shareholders of BYV. And BYV's run by morons who now have no choice, so they agree to this lowball predatory move. And the bleating shareholders of BYV who've finally, finally realized they've been ripped off can shout "not fair!" all they like because this is fucking capital markets, not kindergarten where everyone gets to be a winner.

So I didn't buy any BYV. And I wish Mister Randy Elephant the best of luck. And I laugh in the faces of all those people who fell for Louis James' spiel, on this stock and on all the other losers that he claims are winners in his perverse and criminal little universe of one.

I think that should annoy just about everybody who reads it. Job done.



Lest we forget


The IAMGOLD (IMG.to) (IAG) news release from last night

Something needs to be said here about last night's NR from IMG that announced large-scale layoffs and "tough decisions", because the obvious decision that Pugliese should have made wasn't made. Within minutes of the NR hitting, I received two mails from people who work in Canada's capital markets and here are the title lines of the two mails, unsolicited and as far as I know totally unconnected to each other professionally:

'IMG forgot one special person'

'Looks like they fired the wrong guy'

The bodies of the mails were basically the same message, too. Now let us remind ourselves of Mr Stephen J. J. Letwin's contribution to costs at IMG, this taken from the 2014 MIC:



In simple terms, he's on $3m a year, half of that in cash and mostly earned via "performance bonuses" (term used in its loosest possible manner). And now a comparative chart that puts IAMGOLD up against industry benchmarks, the precious metals ETF GDX and the gold price ETF GLD:


This is the one year chart, but it's just as bad if you go back two or more. For example, over 24 months IAG is nearly 90% down.

What we saw last night from IMG is a corporate suicide note. Why shareholders are supposed to put up with this company's stupidity is beyond all my understanding of the basis of capital markets. Until Steve Letwin is fired, things will only get worse. 



11/10/14

Frank Giustra to sing Patsy Cline while wearing ladies' underwear in downtown Vancouver

Or he will at least if he's good as his word.

In this report from the Globe & Mail dated April 30th 20th 2013, Frank Giustra is so adamant that the gold bull market will continue that he's quoted as follows:

“If I am wrong, if this gold bull market is over, I will stand in the centre of Robson Square and I will sing Patsy Cline’s So Wrong wearing ladies’ underwear,” Mr. Giustra said in an interview this week.
IKN therefore brings out the evidence. This chart shows the percentage performance of gold bullion (using the GLD ETF as proxy) versus the broad markets (using the S&P 500 index as proxy) in the period April 30th (date of that report) to today:



Time to get dressed and dance, Frank. Are you man enough to keep your word?


IKN thanks reader 'TH' for the headsup.





Fortuna Silver (FSM) (FVI.to) 3q14 financials

Sales $46.38m
COGS: $29.66m
Min Op Income: $16.72m
Net Income: $7.824m
EPS 6c
No write downs


Pinetree Capital (PNP.to): Mystery solved

Back in October we at IKN wondered out loud in three separate posts here, and here, and then here (and yeah i liked that last one) just why Sheldon Inwentash and Pinetree Capital (PNP.to) was so, but so keen on dumping just about anything in its portfolio.

Tonight the mystery is solved. Sheldon's deep in the financial shit.
TORONTO, CANADA--(Marketwired - Nov 10, 2014) - Pinetree Capital Ltd. (PNP.TO) ("Pinetree")announces that, as at October 31, 2014, it was not in compliance with one of the debt covenants contained in the convertible debenture indenture dated May 17, 2011, as supplemented by the first and second supplemental indenture dated December 11, 2012 and September 12, 2013, respectively, in each case, between the company and Equity Financial Trust Company, as trustee, which govern Pinetree's 10% convertible unsecured subordinated debentures due May 31, 2016 ("Debentures") (PNP-DB.TO). The debt covenant at issue prohibits the company's debt from exceeding 33% of the total value of its assets, as reflected on its (unaudited) consolidated balance sheet as at the last day of each month. As at October 31, 2014, Pinetree's debt-to-assets ratio was 38.8%.
Pinetree has attempted to manage its debt-to-assets ratio, primarily by retiring in excess of $20 million principal amount of Debentures under normal course issuer bids (representing approximately 27% of the Debentures originally issued), however, the downturn in both commodity prices and the junior resource space generally has eroded the value of the company's investment portfolio.

Colour patterns

Red - Amber - Green - Amber - Red : Traffic lights

Red - Green - Red - Green - Red - Green : Christmas tree lights

Red - Red - Red - Red - Green - Red - Red - Red - Red - Green - Red - Red: Junior miner daily stock screen

Your Bayfield (BYV.v) quiz of the day

Who wrote this?

"This long-expected news has turned out better than we’d hoped, given the state of the junior gold market. An offer for cash, even at a 50% premium, would have been a disaster for many shareholders. Fortunately, the offer is for shares, and we like New Gold well enough to want to hold our new shares in that company. The best part is that New Gold is down more than Bayfield since gold's recent sharp decline, and that adds leverage to the rebound; our NGD shares should recover faster and go higher than BYV shares on their own would do.
It’s a relief to see the light at the end of the tunnel here, though we were very sure it was coming. This deal should work out well for us. We encourage all BYV shareholders to support management and vote in favor of the Arrangement."
Hint: He thinks the people who pay him are fucking stupid.

The Mars One scam

Back when it was first trumpeted a couple of years ago, my BS meter went off and the red flags a-fluttered in my head about Mars One, the private initiative to send a colony of humans on a one-way trip to Mars. Then I kinda forgot about it, like you do in life, right up to this morning when I got to read this really great piece of investigative narrative about Mars One, written by one Elmo Keep who cared more than I did. 

He She* does a great job, but doesn't quite go far enough at the end by saying, "...I wouldn’t classify it exactly as a scam...". Because it is, Elmo, it's a 100% dyed-in-the-wool obvious scam, as anyone who's been hanging around junior mining companies and watching bullshit artists peddle dreams to the naive in exchange for quantities of cash will quickly testify. To quote another (though infinitely more honest than the Mars One people) purveyor of science fiction dreamery, Douglas Adams, "If it looks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, we have at least to consider the possibility that we have a small aquatic bird of the family anatidae on our hands."

Anyway, click through and read this great note on Mars One by Elmo Keep. An excellent longread that shines plenty of light on the cockroaches who've been living off this bunch of malarkey and nonsense for too long. And nice job getting an interview for the piece with a real hero, Commander Chris Hadfield.

*on second look saw the photo. My bad for presuming, Elmo.


Trade opened

Dear subbers, as per IKN287. Didn't get quite the price I wanted, but I'll take it. Cryptic message complete.

UPDATE: Took a second bite this afternoon too. Better price. Game on.

The Legatum Prosperity Index, 2014

Via this Greg Weeks post, which you should check out for the LatAm-centric commentary on the index.

Find the thing here and on inspection, it strikes me as superior to the normal sort of country life-quality ranking tables you get from world bodies. You can even play with the ratios of the ranking criteria to see how things are affected. Very good and what's more, I generally agree with the way in which LatAm states are ranked in the list.

Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori

Tomorrow Tuesday 11th November, the eleventh month, at eleven minutes past eleven, you have a task to perform.Your task is to remember.
If you could hear, at every jolt, the blood  Come gargling from the froth-corrupted lungs,  Obscene as cancer, bitter as the cud   Of vile, incurable sores on innocent tongues,  My friend, you would not tell with such high zest  To children ardent for some desperate glory,  The old Lie

To complete your Berlin Wall 25 years celebrations...

...you are now legally obliged to listen to Wind of Change by Scorpions.



East Germans suffered, now it's your turn.

Endeavour Silver (EDR.to) (EXK) 3q14 financials

Right here. And let's give Bad Crooke Brad Cooke credit, you don't have to search the NR for the net loss numbers, they're sitting up there good'n'proud at the top.

But let's not take anything away from the real story here: This is a seriously, seriously shitty set of financials. 

And hey, I bet Bad Crooke Brad Cooke and fellow director Mario Szotlender are happy they had the foresight to dump 190,000 shares and 195,000 shares respectively, back in late October. My stars, that was lucky timing guys. 

Darned autospell thingy.

Rio Alto 3q14 financials

EPS 8c. Op cash cost $538/oz. AISC $783/oz. All-in costs per ounce (and that's everything) $940/oz. My fellow longs, those are decent numbers.

PS, Oh, you want the link to the NR? Ok, it's here.

Chart of the day is...

...Peru's international currency reserves position, per quarter, December 2008 to date:


The $63.8Bn of today is down from the high point of early 2013, but it's still over U$2k per capita and that's a decent reserve. $44.8Bn is held in securities, about $15.8Bn is bank deposits in foreign currency (nearly all dollars), then there's $1.3Bn or so in gold and the rest can be put under "other". Data from here.

11/9/14

The IKN Weekly, out now


a comtrex cold/flu pill, if you must know

IKN287 has just been sent to subscribers and River Plate has just equalled its all time record of games without losses, 31 (last achieved in 1922).

Carlos Tevez's goal

Juve dismantled Parma to the tune of 7-0 today but the pick of the goals was this one, the 4th...



...because it's an obvious candidate for world goal of the season. The only thing I have against it is the goalkeeper, who was flatfooted but was probably feeling down about the first three going in and knew the game was already over. But it takes nothing away from Carlos Tevez, this is association football of the very highest quality.