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6/27/15

The 2015 Copa America reaches semi-final stage

It hasn't had a mention on the blog to date, but as the last quarter final has just finished and Brazil were beaten on penalties by Paraguay, we now have the full semi-finals line-up for Monday and Tuesday and a few words on each game:

First semi-final, Monday: Chile versus Peru
Host nation Chile has played just about the most attractive football of the tournament so far. The attack has real bite, Alexis Sanchez, Jorge Valdivia and Arturo Vidal are working well together, but the defence looks shaky at times and hasn't really faced a top class team so far, either.

Peru is the surprise semi-finalist nation. For sure it had an easy quarter-final against the very modest Bolivia team, but Peru made its own luck by playing better than anyone expected in the group stage, particularly when getting a point off the strong Colombia team. Peru then showed it had a decent attack by putting three past Bolivia (and it could have been more). The defence is sloppy at times and that will likely be its undoing against the sharpness of Chile, unless Peru manages to tighten up considerably. However the attack isn't bad.

Bottom line: Chile is deserved favourite to win this one. Peru's chance is in an open game where its front line manage to match Chile's for goals, then the game goes to penalties. I'd give Chile an 80% chance of going through to the final, but an upset isn't impossible in this one. 


Second semi-final Tuesday: Argentina versus Paraguay
Argentina hasn't played at its best so far and only squeaked past Colombia on penalties after missing a dozen chances during the match. The defence looks great, midfield needs to be a little more vertical and supply the front line more quickly, Messi needs to find his shooting boots.

Paraguay is scrappy and technically good, having improved back to its normal strength under new manager Ramón Díaz (sidebar trivia: all four managers in the semi-finals are Argentine) after a couple of years in the comparative wilderness. Paraguay also drew 2-2 with Argentina in the group stage of this tournament, coming back from 2-0 down and showing real fight and spirit to do so (it also helped that Argentina got complacent in that match and failed to respect its opponent enough). But it won't get the room it got against Brazil today in next week's match.

Bottom line: Argentina will win this match and go through to the final. Against Colombia yesterday it was the "everything-but-the-goal" team, that won't last with such high quality in the squad. When this Argentina starts flowing, it's a pleasure to watch that's beaten only by Barcelona's style and grace (the frustration of watching both of those when not firing on all cylinders exists too, equal and opposite). Paraguay is a respectable team but doesn't have enough to win this game. Peru has more chance against Chile than Paraguay vs Argentina.

As for a call on my likely Chile -  Argentine final set-up, I'll defer out of respect for the potential upsets from Peru or Paraguay. Nothing's certain in football and both the underdogs in the semis have their chances here, neither has an impossible task ahead. A post Wednesday on the final, including prediction.

A small reminder: It's an election year in Argentina

One Lilian Herraez, who is a Federal judge in the city of Rio Grande in Tierra del Fuego, South Argentina, today imposed a U$156.4m fine and ordered the confiscation of ships and other equipment being used by oil companies currently operating illegally in and around the Falkland Islands/Islas Malvinas.

I'd take a guess at the supposed illegality being tied much more closely to the name Malvinas than Falklands but hey, WTFDIK?


The most visited IKN post this week is...

...this one, "Continental Gold (CNL.to): Let the pumping begin".

Which was quite nice, because it's one of those unusual weeks when my favourite was the most hit upon, too.

6/26/15

The Friday OT: Garbage; Stupid Girl

A few weeks ago we featured Goldfrapp and Strict Machine as a Friday OT and I was left wondering about the sound. Yes Marc Bolan and yes Donna Summer/Giorgio Moroder, those taken as read, but the dirty sound is infectiously likeable, too. So I was, "Where did this come fr...ah, of course, Butch Vig". Yup, it's this Garbage breakthrough track from 1996 that marked out the dirty sound.

And so, like you do, you go check the old song out to see how the years have treated it. The answer is well, so it's today's Friday OT:




And gotta love Shirley Manson. No compromise, no flimflam, no messing around, straight-up kickass singer. Success is hers, but she's still highly underrated as an artist.

Biiwii on the US Dollar

A nice chart-look at the US Dollar (USD) by Gary T over at Biiwii today, right hereThe title is "USD; Daily, Weekly, Monthly & Conclusions" which explains the subject matter better than I can in this short post. Go look.

Chart of the day is...

...zinc, 12 months:



Tell me again how Zn is going to be the metal of 2015 Mr. Sellside Anal yst.

And don't skip the part about the supply crunch, that's my favourite bit.

No wait, my mistake, the bit when you tell me to get on Trevali, that's the best bit.

6/25/15

It's worth remembering just how stupid the goldbug community is

Remember back in late February and early March when these wingnuts told us that the new Apple gold watch would need 746 tonnes of gold per year? Remember how IKN reacted to thatThese people are certifiably nuts. We're now at the point where you wonder how anyone can take them seriously ever again.

Don Diego

QEPD.


Muckpile on Cambridge House

Screenshot here:


Link here. We very like The Muckpile. If only for its name, about the best possible for a mining blog.

Wanna know what's looking like a trading buy right now?

I'll tell you what's looking like a trading buy right now*:



Goldcorp (GG) (G.to) is looking like a trading buy right now, that's what. Mark this post at its current (Thursday AM) price of U$16.85 and come back in a couple of days. And DYOFDD**.


*As you're always moaning about IKN being negative and never bringing anything positive to the table.
** Yes, the F stands for exactly that. 

Checking in on Keith Neumeyer's market whistleblowing mastery and world domination stuff and things

Indeed those 1% or the 1% Illuminati World Master Of Silver trembled with abject fear at the beginning of the fair month of June when Keith Neumeyer of First Majestic Silver (AG)  sent a letter to the CFTC to complain that people with mere money are guilty of silver speculation. I mean, how dare they? Imagine a capital market trying to set the price of a commodity merely by its own weight of money...unheard of. As we pointed out a couple of weeks ago...
This of course only ever happens to silver. And is only happening now. It has never happened to any other metal or traded commodity in the history of futures markets.
And they say irony doesn't work well on the internet. Oh how we laughed. Dryly, of course. Anyway, here's silver's progress since then, sat next to gold, the S&P, and even the junior miners using GDXJ.


Hey Keith! Winning! 

Chart of the day is...

...a little reminder about the price of gold in 2q15...


...and what you should expect from your gold mining company.

Shanghai's gold fix

The metals news of the day starts like this:
The Shanghai Gold Exchange will launch a yuan-denominated gold fix by the end of the year, a bourse official said on Thursday, in a move aimed at giving China more influence over the pricing of the precious metal. 
"We will be introducing a renminbi-denominated fix at the right moment, we are hoping to introduce by the end of the year," Shen Gang, vice president of the Shanghai Gold Exchange said at the LBMA Bullion Market Forum in Shanghai.

One of theose things you read and go "unsurprised", but it's still mightily interesting when you hear about it. Full note here, plus in about a couple of million goldbug conspiracy theory sites by the end of today.

6/24/15

The Loneliness of the Long Distance Runner*

On getting feedback of various shapes and forms about the Continental Gold (CNL.to) post that went up pre-opening bell this morning and then watching it do this...



...an extra word or three.

It's much easier to be part of the herd. And frankly, it was zero surprise to see CNL pop the way it did today because the whole and considerable weight of the Canadian bullshit peddling sellside mining industry is now behind this stock and its Buritica project. My stars those guys need a win and they've latched onto this one in no uncertain terms. When that happens, the outsider voice such as your humble scribe's will always, but always be fully trampled upon in the rush. And that's okay, it's part of the lonely territory covered at IKN.

But be there 3m 4.6m or 10m ounces of supposedly and apparently economic high grading gold at Buritica, your author's opinion of this stock changes not one iota. The people running CNL.to are not suspected of being untrustworthy or perhaps guilty of ripping off the world and getting rich by peddling bullshit, they're stone cold certain rip-off merchants and proven mining scum. Feel free to put your money with them, but when you do be 100% crystal clear that by doing so you're not the solution to anything, you're just prolonging the deep problems in the Canadian mining industry. And when Buritica's political and community risk suddenly goes off scale and the whole project blows up in everyone's face, don't remember this post. Nobody else will either, which is why scumbags like Sussman and Wall get away with what they do. 

So I say the same thing tonight with the stock at $3.20 as I did when the stock was at $9, $10, $6 and most recently $2. Avoid Continental Gold, don't go long, don't go short, don't go near. Better to invest in juniors that aren't run by the lowest form of human life.


*By Alan Sillitoe. Synposis here.


Greece addendum

This is going around the interwebnetpipes today. An apt addition to yesterday's post.

The latest poll snapshot for Argentina's presidential election

This is NOT a national poll, it only covers the Province of Buenos Aires (PBA) and that normally favours the Scioli candidacy (by roughly five points versus national polls), but the iBarometro people do frequent opinion polls on a representative cross-section and give a fair idea of where we're going. 

However the most important thing is that nobody wins the Presidency without winning PBA, it's virtually hand-in-glove stuff.

That's the background, here's the paydirt:



Told you before and I'll tell you again, Daniel Scioli is the next President of Argentina. So get used to the idea.

ps: In fact we've been calling him favourite since April and he was our pick plenty before then, too.



Global Mining Observer on Osisko Gold Royalties (OR.to) and Sean Roosen

A tasty write-up on the current condition of Osisko Gold Royalties (OR.to) and its "gruff and litigious" head honcho, Sean Roosen, out of Global Mining Observer this week entitled "Osisko's Inexplicable Overhead". Find the first part here (pdf download) and the second part here.

The reason for the title is captured in this chart from the piece...



...though I'm not sure why they decided to include Sandstorm in that group, it would have been better to concentrate on the serious royalty companies, not the failed excuses for them. Anyway, go read the note and here's an extract to whet your proverbial labios.
"In less than 2 years, Osisko’s punchy chief executive Sean Roosen has created a sizable new player, putting together royalties over Malartic and Eleonore, Canada’s two largest gold mines. Yet Roosen’s flare for bold, unpredictable deals also points to empire-building by Osisko and corporate largesse, raising broader questions as to how it will allocate its royalty revenue."



Continental Gold (CNL.to): Let the pumping begin

Hurry Hurry Hurry! Do like all the underwater sellside anal ysts and newsletter writers in Canada today and get down to....

Ari and Vic's Pre-Loved Mine Emporium




...they're waiting for you right now.

UPDATE: For more, this post has some of the explanation for this image and sentiment.

6/23/15

Greece

Though there's no doubt that your humble scribe strays off his designated blogging path on a regular basis, the whole Greece schamoozle hasn't been mentioned here because it's not part of the IKN remit and there are many, many other places that have covered its happenings more deeply and wisely then this humble corner could ever manage.

There you go, a mouthful of words to say "I don't do Grexit stuff" but today I break that and do just a little because although it's not been a subject for posts, it's an issue I've followed fairly closely in the background. And of all the things I've read, good bad or indifferent, these few lines most closely match my formed opinion. They come from this extended piece by Jesse L over at the Café Americain today:
"...these EU economic propeller heads to worry about 'potential recessionary effects' in Greece from raising taxes is laughable.  At every opportunity these self-important plutocrats have abused their powers and positions to create massive financial bubbles, which they use to reward themselves and their cronies handsomely.   And afterwards, they plunge the public into depression-like conditions with their crackpot neoliberal prescriptions, while pompously prevaricating about virtue and 'thrift.'"

You should now go over and read the whole thing. And to that I add something George Carlin said over a decade ago. Tell me this isn't the blueprint for the near future of Greece and you'll have me laughing in your face.
You know what they want? They want obedient workers. Obedient workers, people who are just smart enough to run the machines and do the paperwork. And just dumb enough to passively accept all these increasingly shitty jobs with the lower pay, the longer hours, the reduced benefits, the end of overtime and vanishing pension that disappears the minute you go to collect it, and now they’re coming for your Social Security money. They want your retirement money. They want it back so they can give it to their criminal friends on Wall Street, and you know something? They’ll get it. They’ll get it all from you sooner or later cause they own this fucking place! It's a big club, and you ain’t in it!  You, and I, are not in the big club.

By the way, it's the same big club they use to beat you over the head with all day long when they tell you what to believe. All day long beating you over the head with their media telling you what to believe, what to think and what to buy. The table has tilted folks. The game is rigged and nobody seems to notice. Nobody seems to care! Good honest hard-working people; white collar, blue collar it doesn’t matter what color shirt you have on. Good honest hard-working people continue, these are people of modest means, continue to elect these rich cock suckers who don’t give a fuck about you….they don’t give a fuck about you… they don’t give a fuck about you.
They don’t care about you at all… at all… AT ALL. 

As for the the funniest bit*, the Troika, the IMF and the EU will get away scot-free with this rape. We'll see nary a ripple in the fabric of financial society, gold won't budge, the Euro won't zoom or collapse, the Swissie will continue to chug along, normal service won't be resumed because it was never interrupted.

Post brought to you while listening to Chopin's Nocturne opus 37 N° 2 in G major (andante), right here.

*though not funny haha


The Red Eagle (RD.v) people having a good old laugh today

This from CB Gold (CBJ.v) a few minutes ago:

VANCOUVER, BC--(Marketwired - June 23, 2015) - CB Gold Inc. (TSX VENTURE: CBJ) ("CB Gold" or the "Company") announces that shareholders have voted in favour of management's proposals as contained in the Company's management information circular dated May 25, 2015 by at least the necessary majority in all cases,except for the motion to approve the Sale Transaction between CB Gold and OM.L Trading (as announced on May 19, 2015).
full thing here

Chart of the day is...

...a little context for that USA 2015 bull market you people up there keep telling me about:



Your lillywhite asses are being whupped by Argentina, people. That's only socially acceptable in the world of football.

6/22/15

Regarding albatrosses and necks (from IKN 319)

This is the intro spiel for IKN319. I get the occasional nudge from subscribers to put this-or-that piece from The IKN Weekly on the public blog, but I didn't think for a second that anyone would push me to stick this thing on here. I was wrong, the third mail with the same request just landed this evening and so hey, what the Henry? The only thing that changes is the redaction of a couple of company names right at the end, the rest is as stands.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Regarding albatrosses and necks
Down dropt the breeze, the sails dropt down,
'Twas sad as sad could be;
And we did speak only to break
The silence of the sea!

All in a hot and copper sky,
The bloody Sun, at noon,
Right up above the mast did stand,
No bigger than the Moon.

Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

Water, water, everywhere,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, everywhere,
Nor any drop to drink.

The Rime of the Ancient Mariner
Samuel Taylor Coleridge

There's this ongoing line of complete bullshit commentary in the metals and mining world that's so pervasive it'll even suck me in on occasion. It's sellside crap to the Nth degree.

·     If times are good buy stocks, they're going up.
·     If times are bad buy stocks because the cycle will come around.
·     If times are neutral and nothing is happening buy stocks, it's a coiled spring out there.

And for sure no, that doesn't just apply to the mining industry and its motley crew of assorted parasites, but as this whole sector smacks of the desperation of wanting SOMETHING to HAPPEN because if not, the blood will stop flowing and the parasites will have nothing left to feed upon, I'm finding it all a bit too brazen to bear easily.

We're down to promoting a "selective bull", peddling expertise in the bifurcating market, promising riches by choosing the best and forgetting the ones that will have to die. "Stick with me, I'm the smart connected writer, and for a modest monthly sum I'll lead you through the minefield of moose-pasture peddlers and show you the real deal miners". We're down to cheering any minor move made by silver against gold and ignoring in finest "LahLahLah I Can't Hear You" manner any macro market news that doesn't fit the narrative. We're down to pushing conferences "headlined" by the same abject idiots who predicted imminent hyperinflation five years ago and who'll just say the same things to their dwindling band of True Believers in this conference season, and charge them hundreds of fiat dollars for the privilege to boot. We're down to the sellside brokerages running half million dollar brokered private placements. We're down to minor exploreco pumps, to promotional BS games that are turning incestuous (witness the fun and games between the smarter and the dumber promoters around Lion Gold (LIO.v) for a good example of how the smartest ones will survive by eating the neophytes if necessary). I could continue, but the real message I want to get across is this:

A) Nothing is going to happen in the metals market until gold takes off.
B) Gold may do something in 2015, but it's unlikely to happen before the end of the Northern summer. That's post-Labor Day, that's 3q15, that's going to feel like a loooong time from today in late June.
C) Don't waste your money on mining sector commentary. Let us waste our own time, no need to join us, there's so much more out there that's better to read (for example my own muse at this time, Infinite Jest by David Foster Wallace).

So do yourself a favour and sell a few stocks, or lighten a few positions, take some cash off the table and go play with it somewhere else or save it for when things get fun again because believe me, this is not fun. Watching the desperation in freeloaders' eyes is not fun. Trying and failing to explain to junior mining company officers that the party isn't just over but it's OVER FOREVER is no fun. While you're at it, why not unsubscribe from this publication and any other that's managed to get you to part you from some of your hard-earned cash? That's money you could better spend on your spouse, your kin, your car, whatever you like that gives some pleasure. If you feel like coming back later in the year you'll be very welcome here (and I'd vouchsafe that's true for anywhere else you unsub this week) but I see no reason why you should read and keep so fixated on a sector that's showing all signs of going precisely nowhere for the time being. Meanwhile I'm going to keep ploughing on, pounding on numbers, looking at the sector, trying to find a decent trade or three, but I also know that for the time being I'm unlikely to deploy wholesale the cash that's still sidelined, any sales such as the ones announced today are moving details around the edges. My personal plans include:

1) Selling what little copper exposure I have left
2) Perhaps selling (name redacted) if a slightly higher out price shows up in the next couple of weeks.
3) Definitely buying some more (name redacted), perhaps adding to the gold producers.
4) Investigating a couple of interesting explorecos on my radar.
5) Watching the market for any move that proves my assumption of sector inertia wrong.
6) Reading non-business literature and classic novels I've wanted to catch up on.
7) Other things too.

So stick around if you like. After all, it's your money not mine. But if you unsub yourself from this and other publications, I'd bet you'd save yourself both time and money. 

Even in the quietest moments...

...something will come along and cheer you up. For example, finding out that Thom Calandra has been neck deep in Great Panther Silver (GPR.to) (GPL) shares and reco'ing the thing to all and sundry for enough time to hurt. A lot.



They're made for each other.

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/copper ratio:




Self explanatory.

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN319 has just been sent to subscribers. And you can read all about the upcoming 80th birthday for the Dalai Lama which will include a special album with tracks by Sting, Peter Gabriel, Kate Bush and a hatful of other big name singers in this Rolling Stone report right here. And you can find out all about that new album to commemorate his birthday from The Art of Peace Foundation, called "Songs for Tibet II" on this link right here.