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4/16/16

7.4 mag earthquake off Ecuador (USGS now calling it a 7.8mag)




Undersea, 10km depth, tsunami warning in place.

Here's the USGS page. The USGS is nowcalling it at 7.8 and if so, that's not just a big one, it's massive. Also by the looks of the updated map it seems they're calling it on the coast rather than out at sea.

But 7.4 or 7.8 this is a serious quake, wishing those close all the best.

UPDATE: Not good. Ecuador's Vice-President Jorge Glass has just appeared on TV to confirm the first reports of fatalities, 16 people in the nearby town of Manta. I'd hope it weren't so, but in all likelihood number is going to rise as the hours pass.

UPDATE 2: That's now 28 dead. IKN now signs off on this story, way too big for this little blog, go find it in the major news services.


The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "First Mining Finance (FF.v) and Daniel Ameduri of Future Money Trends: On this one, pump always rhymes with dump", our continuing coverage of how Keith Neumeyer, the self-appointed scourge of market manipulators, hires a market manipulator to pump his dog of a stock to the stupid and green. Sleeping well at night, Keith? 

Second Place: "Regarding Porter Stansberry's latest pump job (from IKN361)", which garnered enough hits to be a runaway winner of the weekly poll on just about any other occasion. Anyone buying into these pump jobs needs to understand the real reason why these people do what they do, how they really make themselves the big bucks from these promo jobs.

First Place: "Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) close to buying Richmont Mines (RIC.to)". This one went viral and moved RIC up 10% against the GDX(J) benchmarks (which means TAHO need to pay more if they want to secure the deal...oh deary me). I've been asked about this information in several mail exchanges, one of the questions being "why?". Why is somebody privy to the inside information at TAHO so keen on spilling the beans to a pissant blogger such as I. As noted to a couple of mailers, that's a darned good question and the answer has something to do with Kevin MacArthur and the disconnect between his own opinion of himself and the opinions held by people close to him. THO is not a happy ship.

4/15/16

Henk van Alphen seems legit

These guys are the funniest ever. Here's your Friday evening jewel of a NR:

VANCOUVER , April 15, 2016 /CNW/ - Wealth Minerals Ltd. (the "Company" or "Wealth") - (TSXV: WML; Frankfurt: EJZ), announces that, on April 14, 2016 , it closed the settlement of $687,000.00 in debt related to certain accounts payable to Cardero Resource Corp. and a portion of the principal sum of certain outstanding loans originally made to the Company in 2011.  The Company issued 2,000,000 common shares at a deemed price of $0.21 in settlement of such debt. Continues here

So Cardero, the Henk van Ripoff mothership company, gets 2m shares to pay off a debt that it didn't even need to rack up (share office space, shared coffee machine, that kinda silliness) priced at 21c, while Wealth Minerals (WML.v) shares closed this Friday at 67c.

And people think Trevali (TV.to) is a serious company.

The Friday OT: Mozart; Piano Concerto #23 K488, Adagio

No need to be a classical buff to know this tune, just a case of watching a few movies until it shows up. 



One of the world's most recognized pieces of music, I've chosen (from literally dozens available on Youtube) this one by Richard Goode, recorded in 2006 at the Proms festival. 

To quote W.A.M. himself, "The music is not in the notes, but in the silence between". And while on the subject here's the famous Mozart quote about writing symphonies that probably isn't true, but that doesn't matter because it's still great:

Student: "Herr Mozart, I am thinking of writing a symphony, how should I get started?"
Mozart: "A symphony is a very complex musical form and you are still young. Perhaps you should start with something simpler, like a concerto."
Student: "But Herr Mozart you were writing symphonies when you were eight years old!"
Mozart: "Yes, but I never had to ask anyone how."


Nice to see Fasken back and visting IKN

Ah now Fasken people, nice to see you back, it's been a while. Now, let me think as to why you're back checking out IKN for info, suddenly at the tail end of this week...hmmm...wait.....no...ahhhh yeah, that'd be it!



Oh darling Fasken people, if only you knew what IKN knows. Hey, why not mail me and ask? No secrets between friends after all. Ah, but it's just a matter of time now though, isn't it...you'll find out eventually, all by yourselves. 

Have a nice weekend, Fasken people.

Richmont vs GDXJ

I dunno Kev, what do you think?



You think loose lips are costing you money again, Kev? Could be right, Kev...

7.0mag Japan earthquake

USGS page here, about 30 minutes ago, here are notable things:

  • 10km depth fairly shallow
  • On the heels of a 6.2mag earlier in the week
  • Hit just after midnight local time, which mean more people under roofs. Not so great.

IKN sends best positive vibes and wishes to those affected there.

In IKN362 this weekend...

...all sorts of fun and frolics, including:
  • A new purchase for next week (not buying before then, though)
  • Updates on current long positions and why I'm not selling any of them, even if they hit current price targets
  • More information on the Tahoe/Richmont takeover talks (which are definitely happening, no matter MacArthur might want to BS you with to the contrary)
  • A look at how the Peru election second round is shaping and what it means for the mining sector there
All that and whatever else comes to mind. 

The IKN Weekly, keeping me out of trouble with law and order authorities for three hundred and sixty one weekends and counting.

Chart of the day is...

...copper.


More important than the gold chart at the moment.

4/14/16

Understanding conflicts of interest, Gwen Preston and West Red Lake Gold Mines (RLG) edition

West Red Lake Gold Mines (RLG) is a no-hope dog of a moose pasture peddler that trades on Canada's awful CSE stock market, but that hasn't stopped it from being able to raise $575,000 recently in an equity placement at 10c a unit, with each unit containing one share and a juicy full warrant priced at 15c.

And one thing that's also been interesting about the stock is the way Gwen Preston, the "Resource Maven" who claims to offer "Independent Analysis of the Resource Market" (and remember that word "independent" for later) anal ysis and advice on juniors, has been pumping the merry bejeez out of the stock recently. Her efforts started mid-March, she's written up the stock, she's reco'd it at presentations and talks, she's dropped the RLG  name wherever she can and evidence shows...


...she's been getting at least a few poor saps into the stock. Plenty more where that example came from, too.

We got the filing for the equity placement filed at the BCSC yesterday and it just so happens that the biggest taker of the deal was Scott Gibson of Kitco and also of "Beneath The Surface Capital", who took 2m units...


...and was also awarded 261,000 bonus shares, which probably means he got other people in and is claiming a finder's fee to boot.



And amazingly enough, incredibly, coincidentally, Gwen Preston works for Scott Gibson as guest host at Beneath The Surface:


And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what Vancouver tries to pass off as "independent analysis".

Gwen Preston, IKN believes you owe a full explanation to your readership.


Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) close to buying Richmont Mines (RIC.to)

And this one is no April fool's joke. IKN brought you news of the Lake Shore Gold deals before it happened, now you know about the next stage in THO's future. Once again, you heard it here first.

Hey Kevin! Your head office is still darned leaky, isn't it? At what point do they start laughing at you behind your back?

PS: full disclosure; no position in either company's shares.


The Origins of Technical Analysis (re-post)

Originally this IKN post dated 2009:


Most people believe that technical analysis is a fairly new discipline that sprung up in the 20th century. In fact its roots can be traced back thousands of years, as the principles of TA were developed by the early civilizations of South America.

In the Bolivian and Peruvian Altiplano highlands, the rainy season is very important. The rains have to come on time at the end of November, else the potatoes planted end September or early October don't germinate properly and the harvest (around March) won't be good. This is important today but hundreds of years ago it was vital, as a totally failed crop would mean region-wide hunger. So if the rains are late, people begin to get worried.

Those locals then consult the village shamans, typically known as 'Yatiri'. If the Yatiris decide that a ceremony is in order to bring on the rains they go out looking for a frog or two. Once they find their frog they will poke, prod and pour liberal quantities of water over the poor animal until it starts to croak loudly.

Why? Because over time people noted that frogs would all start croaking just before a heavy rainstorm. So naturally if you find a frog and make it croak it will induce rainfall, as the Andean cosmovision makes it clear that all things are interconnected and one action is directly and inextricably linked to another.

  • The rainstorm is the stock market.
  • The frog is a chart.
  • The yatiri is the technical analyst.

UPDATE: A regular round these parts, reader SP mails in and adds to the mythology with..

"I guess cargo plane cults exist at every level of civilization"

 Indeed. Nice little explanation of that right here.

Rockstone Research on Voltaic Minerals (VLT.v) (ex Prima Diamond): All you need to know

It's this bit at the bottom of today's Rockstone paid-for advert masquerading as stock analysis:
"The author of this report is paid by Zimtu Capital Corp., a TSX Venture Exchange listed investment company. Part of the author’s responsibilities at Zimtu is to research and report on companies in which Zimtu has an investment. So while the author of this report is not paid directly by Prima Diamond Corp., the author’s employer Zimtu will benefit from appreciation of Prima Diamond Corp.’s stock price. In addition, the author owns shares of Prima Diamond Corp. and Zimtu Capital Corp. and thus would also benefit from volume and price appreciation of its stocks. In this case, Prima Diamond Corp. has one or more common directors with Zimtu Capital Corp. Thus, multiple conflicts of interests exist. Therefore, the information provided here within should not be construed as a financial analysis or recommendation but strictly as an advertisment."

And Zimtu, of all people! If you don't know how that particular house of Vancouver sharks is adept at separating the greenhorn from her or his cash, you need to do a little more DD before wading into juniors, kind reader.

"Whatever makes you think Lithium's in a bubble, Otto?" 
"Ooooh, just a hunch yaknows..."

PS: Advertisement has three Es, Rockstone people.

At Argonaut Gold (AR.to) you can buy an ounce of gold for U$969.15

1) According to Kitco, the average selling price for silver in 1q16 was U$14.91/oz

2) According to Argonaut Gold (AR.to), there are 65 ounces of silver in one gold ounce equivalent. We quote from the company's 1q16 production NR...
GEOs are based on conversion ratio of 65:1 for silver to gold for 2016 and 55:1 for 2015. This is the referenced ratio throughout this release
...to prove that (with "GEO" meaning "gold equivalent ounce, for those of you just joining us)

3) Therefore, it stands to reason that AR.to would be willing to sell you one of the gold ounces it produces for U$969.15. Go on, phone em up and ask em nicely...

Further questions? Ah yeah, what they say they produced and sold in 1q16...


...compared to previous quarters and hey wow Yathink the way they sold over 2k oz GEO less than they produced may have something to do with their bullshit GEO production claims? Yathink? Mebbe?


x

Fortuna Silver (FVi.to) (FSM) 1q16 production numbers

Silver here:



Gold here:

The decadence in production continues. FVI is a well run mining company, it's just that its stock is expensive. On the other hand, it makes more sense to own this one than Great Panther Silver, how that one got bid up again is beyond me.

4/13/16

There will be no more posts today Wednesday

For secret reasons.

More Stansberry mailbag, more on how they extract cash from the naive

More feedback from you nice people regarding the pump and dump insider scam that Porter Stansberry is currently playing on your sad hides, this time from reader "WS" who sent this in yesterday evening:
Dear Otto,

Thanks very much for your Stansberry posts today.  I receive 5 - 10 emails a day from this "group".  I don't send them to the spam folder because it is good to know about the latest scams...and there are plenty.  I enjoy your blog and read it every day.  Again thanks.

Regards (name supplied)
And thanks right back at you, WS. If you want to know more about the reasons for those incessant mails the Stansberry and Casey scumbags are sending you, check out the following posts from August last year on the contents of the secret Agora Handbook for selling. Well, it was secret until then anyway :-). Three posts of interest are:




Click on those and read up. I particularly like the bit when they instruct their staff to avoid spending too much marketing cash on women because, "They don’t have the emotional need that is required to set off a buying frenzy". And how Stansberry focuses on baby-boomers worrying about retirement because they waste more of their money on this tripe.

Chart of the day is...

...the US Dollar index, hourlies:

"Reports of my death have been..." etc etc.

We noted in the Weekly a couple of editions ago that the automatic assumption of Dollar Death, or even more reasonable dollar weakness, from current levels is something for the foolish. Check out the weekly candle chart for more and on the stubborn thing the Greenback's shown at the 94 number these last couple of years.


And calling the dollar lower has become a crowded trade. Natch.

The thing about the dollar is that it's way more difficult to call than the average hard money Austrian dumbass imagines. It could indeed drop further, but there's nothing in the lawbooks that says it can't rally from here either. The USD is best left moot when you're considering a trade in a mining stock, because making it a central point of your buy thesis is just asking for trouble.

4/12/16

Interesting reader mailbag part 2: Copper Fox on the Rocks

Copper Fox (CUU.v) has been a standing joke of a copper exploreco for years, but today's news, brought to this desk by the wonderful J (IKN owes him beers over the years) is a real jewel. I think we'll just go with J's mail on this one, he nails the subject in succinct style:
Hey Otto,

Today's schadenfreude: this morning the sole mineral tenure for Carmax Mining Corp's wholly owned Eaglehead project lapsed, and about six individuals swooped in and picked the eyes out of the deposit.

Copper Fox owns 65.45% of the company and was the sole participant of a $1.5M private placement in flow-through this year in order to fund the 2016 exploration program.

I'm not sure how Carmax Mining is going to conduct it's 2016 program with no property...

Love it! Loving it too, Elmer? Not loving it, Elmer? And as this is the epitome of "Material Event", we can look forward to a big fun NR from Copper Fox in Socks mañana. And here's the screenshot of the tenure lapse, for your dee lek tay shun:

Interesting reader mailbag part 1: Stansberry calls sell on AAU, MAX, LUG

Reader 'SM' (thank you kind sir) sends over the April 12th (i.e. today) edition of "The Stansberry Digest (from the desk of Porter Stansberry)" out this afternoon, which for one thing confirms the man owns a desk. This is good. But SM also highlights an interesting section in red which says...

 One final note before we sign off…

Since launching Stansberry Gold Investor on April 6, gold prices have gone straight up. And prices for gold stocks, which are leveraged to the price of gold, have gone even higher.

Early subscribers to the service are already sitting on large gains across the recommended portfolio. But today, many of the stocks we recommended are trading well above their buy-up-to prices.

We sent an e-mail to all Stansberry Gold Investor subscribers yesterday urging everyone to be patient… and we would like to repeat that message in today's Digest. It's unwise to chase these stocks above their maximum buy prices. You're simply taking on too much risk.

We believe the prices of gold and gold stocks will be much higher in the future. But nothing goes up in a straight line forever. We're sure that once the current excitement surrounding gold and gold stocks dies down, you'll be able to enter these positions at much better prices.

So be patient. Don't bid these stocks above their buy-up-to prices. If you weren't able to establish positions in certain companies, don't worry. We'll issue new recommendations in the near future.

...and anyone with half a market brain knows what that's signalling. If you're one of the sharps who ponied up U$1,500 last Thursday morning and bought into the main pump vehicles of LUG, AMM.to/AAU or MAX.to early and at lower prices, you're now being instructed to take profits at overbought prices and wait for a new lower entry point. And these are the people that don't hang around, they take their instructions from their guru and don't ask questions.

Bottom line: This BS pump is now controlling AMM, MAX and LUG to the upside and to the downside. You have been duly warned and if IIROC has any cojones it'd be all over these scumbags like a rash. 

Hey BCSC, do I get any of that new-fangled whistleblower cash?

First Mining Finance (FF.v) and Daniel Ameduri of Future Money Trends: On this one, pump always rhymes with dump

A chart, notes below:



Let's begin by stating that Keith Neumeyer and First Mining Finance (FF.v) pays tens of thousands of dollars to Daniel Ameduri to pump the stock to the Future Money Trends mailing list. 

Next let's state another fact: Ameduri has so far run three "campaigns" (as they say in the BS pump trade) on FF.v;  one in June 2015, another in October 2015 and the most recent which started this week (first mailers on Sunday, two other salvos yesterday Monday):

As box 1 shows above, the June promo pump caused FF.v to shoot higher. It then dumped back to its normal trading range.

As box 2 shows above, the June promo pump caused FF.v to shoot higher. It then dumped back to its normal trading range.

As for box 3, guess what's about to happen? 

Welcome, Porter!

Nice of you to drop by, guys:



Any reason in particular, or just a social visit?

PS: Hey Porter, I must say I like the way Louis James tries to pretend there's limited internet access in western Argentina. So cute.

UPDATE: Reader 'SP' suggests some music. Kind of you, sir:



UPDATE 2: Obsessed much, Porter?






Chart of the day is...

...the gold/silver ratio:



This chart has data to last night, I've scribbled in this morning's extra dose in red at the end. We're still at very high levels compared to tradition, it's even very high compared to 2015 when the rabid silverbugs assured us all it had already peaked. They were wrong, but in the way of the world, they may be about to get their stopped-clock period because the gold/silver ratio is showing the right signs. At last.

Regarding Porter Stansberry's latest pump job (from IKN361)

This from IKN361, out on Sunday evening. A little light reading from the edition, far from the most important piece this week



Porter Stansberry brings a bazooka to a knife fight
He moves in darkness as it seems to me,
Not of woods only and the shade of trees.
Mending Wall, Robert Frost, 1914

As mentioned in today’s intro, last week’s biggest market moving event came from the money side of the mining sector, rather than the mining or operational side. For those unaware as to who Porter Stansberry is he’s the brains behind Stansberry Research, that bought out the Agora empire a few years ago (where Stansberry started work as a file clerk in 1996) and in 2014 bought out Casey Research from its founder Doug Casey. He’s also the person who was fined $1.5m in 2007 by the U.S Courts for disseminating false stock tip information, with a court that said during its ruling that, "Stansberry's conduct undoubtedly involved deliberate fraud, making statements that he knew to be false”. When he tried to take his case to the U.S Supreme Court under a First Amendment appeal, he wasn’t even let in the door (10). He moves, he shakes, he sells dreams and investment tips, he tells his largely hard-right-wing audience what they want to hear (a recurring theme is the Death of the Dollar, the pitch is to sell gold, sometimes punctuated with warnings how Barack Hussein Obama is about to hijack the constitution and claim a third term of office), he’s short on morals, long on spiel. In short Stansberry is a stock tout and obviously a successful one as these days his touting moves markets in a way his peers and wannabes only dream about.

Last week Stansberry rolled out a new promotion and it’s a doozy. You can find it if you like on the internet, not difficult to come across, in which for the low low price of U$1,500 (one thousand five hundred United States dollars) down and $49 per month you get immediate access to his suite of 15 investment recommendations that tie in closely with the...yes you’ve guessed it,...imminent death of the dollar and a gold price about to jump to $2000, $5000 and even $10,000 per ounce on wholesale financial sector meltdown and destruction. Bless him.

After noting the moves in stocks apparently under the Stansberry pump on the blog last week and after posting (12) on possibles and probables on the list, I decided to stop being so lazy and chase up the story a bit more. It turns out that the 15 Stansberry investment recommendations aren’t all mining stocks, but there are seven precious metals mining stocks highlighted and recommended and they are the following:

  • Silver Wheaton (SLW)
  • Franco Nevada (FNV)
  • NovaGold (NG)
  • Pretium (PVG)
  • Almaden (AMM.to) (AAU)
  • Midas Gold (MAX.to)
  • Lundin Gold (LUG.to)

That’s an interesting list for several reasons, so let’s start by splitting them down the three obvious sub-sets, small medium and large:

1) The smallest ones LUG.to, AAU/AMM.to, MAX.to: These are straight plain juniors all. Here’s a five day chart that shows how they’ve performed compared to gold (GLD):


Those are big, nay massive two day percentage price moves. The type of move that catches the eye of regulators and Lundin Gold was required to comment on the activity on Friday (14).

VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(Marketwired - Apr 8, 2016) - Lundin Gold Inc. ("Lundin Gold" or the "Company") (LUG.TO)(LUG.ST), in response to a request by Market Surveillance (IIROC), today confirmed that it is not aware of any material, undisclosed information related to the Company or its Fruta del Norte gold project in Ecuador that would account for the recent increase in the market price and level of trading activity of its shares.

As is often the case, it’s what they don’t say which is as important. LUG is under no obligation to state everything it knows, it needs to disclose its own position and nothing else, but nobody in their right mind runs a multi-million dollar public listed gold mining company and doesn’t know within seconds the whys and wherefores of significant price movements in its shares. Or put more simply, Ron Hochstein isn’t going to say, “We are not aware of any material, undisclosed information related to the Company or its Fruta del Norte gold project in Ecuador that would account for the recent increase in the market price and level of trading activity of its shares but we do know that Porter Stansberry just pumped the merry bejeez out of our stock and it’s flying because a whole bunch of people are scrabbling for the few shares on the ask”. Not LUG’s problem, frankly, but you could reflect to yourself how “fortunate” this timing is for Lukas Lundin, what with LUG’s big financing to raise the capex required to build the mine has been flagged by the company itself for this quarter.

2) The medium-sized companies, NG, PVG: These are liquid stocks with decent sized market caps of around $2Bn and $1Bn respectively and as you’d expect they do much better average market volumes in both share count and cash terms than the smaller fry noted above. Here’s how those two traded on on Thursday and Friday compared to GLD, as well as the GDX and GDXJ benchmarks which also had good days:


As you can see, PVG and NG out-performed GDX and GDXJ by around 4% on Thursday and Friday, which is a reasonable return for one’s efforts but nowhere as impressive as the little guys noted above.

3) The big cap miners, FNV and SLW: These are highly liquid Tier 1 names, worth $11Bn and $7Bn by market cap. Here’s the five day chart of these two against GLD, GDX and GDXJ:

  
FNV performed right on the GDX/J average, SLW didn’t have such a great time (perhaps because it’s still in the overhang period of its recent $550m equity placement) but performed closely with GLD.

Discussion of promotion effects. The seven stocks performed very much in line with what a market watcher would expect from them under these circumstances, targets of a big promo pump by a market tout with a following of people who can easily shell out $1,500 for a list of names. For sure the whole mining complex had a good week and that helped things pop nicely too, but the small non-liquid stocks’ massive moves weren’t mirrored by the bigger and more liquidity traded issues. That makes sense, as even the biggest mining promo pusher can’t bring in the type of cash that would move up FNV 50% on its own, but it’s perfectly feasible to have a $5m anomaly entering Almaden and seeing it pop like crazy.

So let’s look a little more closely at the big movers, with LUG popping over 30% in two days, MAX around 40% and AMM up 60%. As for the volumes involved, Lundin Gold (LUG.to) isn’t a good example because it’s a very tight share structure and there’s little width available even if you pay up. Also, after running the numbers on that one just a few weeks ago I know it’s now way over-valued (and for my taste, a perfect example as to why this isn’t some carefully DD’d scientific list...it’s just another stock pump). However Almaden and Midas are fairer yardsticks so let’s note volumes in those stocks these last two days:

  • Almaden did around 5.5m shares more than its daily average on its US ticker (AAU) and 1.3m more than its normal on the Canadian ticker (AMM.to). It’s never easy to be exact, some arbitrage may have caused some of that volume, but it’s fair to say that AMM saw around $5m dollars flow into it from this promotion and that’s more than enough to get a normally thinly traded exploreco to jump like a kangaroo.

  • Midas did around 2.5m shares more than its daily average in its US OTC ticker (MDRPF) and the same in Canada (MAX.to). Let’s go for around $2.5m in extra volume in this company’s shares the last two days of last week. We should also note that as a Canada listed stock with just an OTC entry point for US investors (apparently the lion’s share of Stansberry customers, I’m reliably told), it’s a lot easier to move cash into AAU than it is MAX.to.

From those, it’s fair to say that between $2.5m and probably closer to $5m is the kind of money Porter Stansberry can conjure up in just two of the 15 investment recommendations he put in front of clients who paid U$1,500 each for the privilege of reading his words. That’s not bad at all and as I noted on the blog Saturday (11), “I'll give Porter Stansberry credit too, he sure knows how to run one of these and makes the rest (of the junior miner newsletter writer and stock picker community) look like pikers”. He gets an extra $5m moving into an illiquid stock like Almaden and I don’t have to check out my stock radar page, just my e-mail page is enough as I’ve received at least 20 mails since Thursday with “AMM” in the title line.

It also makes sense that the entry of a “fresh” $5m over two days into PVG or NG, stocks that average around U$10m in trade volume per day, will move their dials a little compared to benchmarks but not by anything like as much as the little guys in percentage terms.

It also makes sense that $5m “fresh and extra” moving into Franco Nevada over two days (does U$70m to U$70m per day average) or Silver Wheaton (does U$80m to U$90m per day average) won’t move their dials so very much.

It all fits in fairly well and that type of “Let’s say $5m” per investment idea means Porter’s clients are not short of cash to play with. Which is fair enough when it comes to the big names, I’ll even take the medium sized names as fair game for large money at a pinch, but you can’t tell me that Stansberry Research didn’t know exactly what was about to happen to LUG.to, AMM.to and MAX.to as soon as he pumpo started. Which makes me wonder just why those names were chosen.

Focus on Midas
I’m not going into all three of the smaller names today, but there are reasons to suspect that both LUG and AMM aren’t just names Stansberry pulled out of a hat or eventually decided upon after close DD. Today I’m going to try and keep it short (ish) so my efforts are now concentrated on Midas Gold (MAX.to).

In IKN325 dated August 2nd 2015, we ran a feature on what looked like a set-up for a promo pump in Midas Gold. There were several points and point six noted details about the May 2015 $8m placement, which sold 19.1m units at 42c apiece (unit = 1 share + ½ warrant at 60c strike, valid for two years). Here most of that point 6 from IKN325 (go see the edition for the whole thing, or if you’re new round here and would like a copy, just drop me a line):

6) The people who bought the placement. There were a total of 83 persons (natural or judicial) who took parts of the placement and in among them are many that are involved in the typical Canadian pump job. There are more promo and insto names on the list of placement takers (23) than you can shake a stick at, but by way of a sample...

·      M&G Investment Management of the UK ($1m of the placement)
·      Sun Valley Gold Master Fund ($412k of placement)
·      Jeff Phillips of Global Market Development ($126k of the placement), who also earned $91k in finder's fees so there are plenty inside his sphere also in this deal
·      Casey Research via its KCR LLC fund (25) ($420k of the placement), run in cahoots with Rick Rule and his entourage.
·      Marin Katusa ($42k of the placement)
·      Plethora Precious Metals of The Netherlands ($84k of the placement)
·      Sprott Funds via Exploration Capital Partners fund ($840,000 of placement)
·      Kitco Gibson ($21,000 of placement)

All those and more with most of those less interested in the long-term wellbeing of the Stibnite property and more interested in the near-term lining of their back pockets. Between them, noise is bound to be made and we also note with interest that MAX.to was one of the lunch sponsors at last week's Sprott/Stansberry conference, where those present got a plate of food while they watched the company present and pitch.

And that, ladies and gentlemen readers of The IKN Weekly, is a long list of usual suspects in the mining promo world, all with the chance to clip a warrant and then hold out for a liquidity event in which to take profits.

Next let’s consider one of the key parts of the Stansberry pitch last week. Listen to his spiel (I did, nearly fell asleep but I did) and you too will hear all about the secret phone call he took that got him a secret dinner meeting with one of the world’s top hedge fund people in New York. He then went on to tell us how he heard world top-table financial people talking about....yup, the death of the dollar and gold at $10k and all those wonderful things. We get no evidence that the conversation happened that way, or even that the meeting happened, but the whole hedge fund plus world famous player gold plus fear thing sure sounds like John Paulson to me. And oh look who’s long MAX.to!

Let’s consider what happened in February this year (closed mid-March), when MAX.to ran a much bigger round of fund-raising then in 2015 and the main taker was none other than famed New York hedge fund boss John Paulson. Here’s a chunk of the NR:

As a result of the completion of the Offering, including the issuance of the Advisory Fee Shares (as defined below), the Company's issued and outstanding share capital consists of 175,826,167 Shares. Assuming conversion of all of the Notes, the issued shares would increase to 317,081,748. Were just the Notes held by Paulson converted into Shares, Paulson would hold approximately 97,437,165 Shares, representing 35.7% of the issued and outstanding Shares on a partially diluted basis and 30.7% on a diluted basis (assuming conversion of all outstanding Notes). 

For the record, as well as the big Paulson position Sun Valley took 24.3m of the conversion rights (worth about $8.6m) and brought its overall holding up to just under 10%. Then other large takers of the share offering include M&G Investment Management as well as other names already listed above. At C$0.3541 per share, these guys are sitting on a real bargain it seems, now that the Porter Stansberry pump has pushed the stock to 58c. In fact that 42c placement last year is looking good too.

In other words, Porter Stansberry can time the gold market all he wants, he can pick out FNV and SLW and even NG too as solid investment vehicles, but the way in which a MAX.to got equal billing stinks to high heaven because it’s on another level entirely. This is a pump job designed to benefit his friends, new and old alike. Paulson’s got a free ride on $35m and Porter’s got a new BFF. It’s the start of something....beautiful?

Bottom line: Once you see the modus operandi behind these people, you see them for what they truly are. What you do with this information is up to you, you may consider playing this pump alongside the ones that know when it was going to start and (more importantly) when it will stop. If you do there’s potentially money to be made, but it’s also the classic musical chairs situation so don’t get left standing when the music stops. It tends to stop very abruptly.

And a final word: I’ve also noticed that the Stansberry-owned stock tipping company Casey Research (Louis James et al) is pumping very hard on the same kind of theme and there have been out-sized volume moves on no news in some of their typical pump vehicles, such as Brazil Resources (BRI.v, an awful dog of a thing with mediocre assets in Brazil). These Casey people have alliances and connections with other market voices such as Marin Katusa and John Mauldin, the type of people who don’t think it strange for a person to recommend a stock and sell their own positions at virtually the same time. Other more trustworthy market people I’ve talked with this weekend have noted strange buying action in small explorecos such as Colorado (CXO.v). These and others are the type of size and shape better suited to a “stage two pump” from the Casey people, rather than the main Stansberry Research pump engine. We may be on the threshold of a multi-stage concerted pump effort by these so-called honest money people. Think about that, too.


x

4/11/16

"The Company is taking the notifications seriously"

Isn't that the coolest thing to say? Almost as cool as "continues to review and consider its alternatives", as those options are basically a case of deciding into which orifice they should accept deep penetration by Waterton's large and throbbing member.

Yes indeed, Waterton snatches everything away from yet another company stupid enough to have borrowed its money. That makes three hundred and fifty-six and counting...or at least it feels that way.

SASKATOON , April 8, 2016 /CNW/ - Golden Band Resources Inc. ("Golden Band" or the "Company") (GBN.V) announces that its senior secured lender, Procon Resources Inc. (the "Lender"), has made demand upon the Company for payment by April 18, 2016 of all amounts due and owing by the Company under the credit agreement originally between the Company and Waterton Global Value, L.P. dated August 3, 2012 which, as of the date hereof, are approximately $19.6 million , exclusive of professional fees and costs. In addition, the Company has received a Notice of Intention to Enforce Security under section 244 of the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act ( Canada ) from the Lender.
The Company is taking the notifications seriously and continues to review and consider its alternatives to resolve the situation. At present, there can be no assurance as to what, if any, alternatives might be pursued by the Company.
About Golden Band


x

"When I saw the headline, I thought of you immediately"

That was the title line of a mail kindly sent in by reader W to IKN Nerve Centre last night. The contents of the mail were two items.

1) These words: "Keith Neumeyer, social justice warrior"


So go read the fun and have a good laugh at that 10 to 1 silver gold thing he trots out yet again. 

Keith, do yourself a favour. Stop all that quiet thinking time thing you do during air travel and get into Candy Crush or something.

All this on the day Daniel Ameduri gets paid even more money to refresh the pump on Keith's First Mining Finance (FF.v), too. Bless all these guys as well.

Largo Resources (LGO.v) provides the morning giggles

We should all thank Mark Smith for this lesson in news release damage control...and how not to do it. What you do is first make a big fuss about the appointment of two non-material posts and then kinda slip in down at the bottom the real news, "Oh yeah, the legal dude has decided to leave and our COO, too". Bless em all.
TORONTO , April 11, 2016 /CNW/ - Largo Resources Ltd. ("Largo" or the "Company") announces effective April 4, 2016 , the promotion of Mr. Paulo Misk to President of Brazilian operations of Vanadio de Maracás S.A. ("Maracás"), and Mr. Nilson Luciano Chaves to Vice President of finance and administration of Maracás. Mr. Misk will succeed Kurt Menchen as President of Brazilian operations. Mr. Menchen retired from his position as President of Brazilian operations effective December 31, 2015 but remains a director of Maracás and has entered into a contract for services to provide ongoing assistance to the company.
Mr. Mark Smith , President and Chief Executive Officer of Largo, remarked "Mr. Misk joined Largo in 2014 as the project's General Manager and has played a crucial role in the project's ramp-up phase. Having all operations report through Mr. Misk creates a centralized organizational structure which will further optimize production at the Maracás Menchen Mine. Both Mr. Misk and Mr. Chaves contribute a wealth of experience to the project and I have complete confidence they will continue the on-going success at the Maracás Menchen Mine".
The Company announces that its Chief Legal Officer, John Ashburn , has resigned effective March 31, 2016 . In addition, the Company also announces that Largo's Chief Operating Officer, Michael Mutchler , has left the company to pursue other opportunities effective April 8, 2016 .
Mr. Smith continued, "We at Largo are grateful to John and Michael and wish to thank them for their efforts and contributions to the Company".
About Largo

4/10/16

Peru Presidentials: 20.1% of the OFFICIAL results

9:30pm Peru time and the first tranche of official results have been announced:

  • Keiko 38.04%
  • PPK 25.48%
  • Mendoza 16.22%

As the first set of official results favour urban over rural, these numbers tie in closely with both the exit poll and the later fast count votes. This strongly suggests that PPK will beat Veronika Mendoza by around two points.

Bottom line: Keiko vs PPK in the second round run-off. Take that to the bank.

The IKN Weekly, out now



IKN361 has just been sent to subscribers. A new top pick, a look at the Stansberry pump job, a new view on gold's near-term direction. Other things too.

Peru elections: First exit polls say its Keiko first, second is tight between PPK and Mendoza

It's 4pm in Peru, the polls have just closed and the first exit polls have just come out. They look like this, according to IPSOS

Keiko Fujimori 37.8%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski 20.9%
Veronika Mendoza 20.3%

The other candidates don't matter. That's a uncallable one for second place, but a slight advantage for PPK.

We know Keiko's in the round two run-off, we know she doesn't have the 50% to win in this round. It's tight between PPK and Mendoza for second place. 

Please be warned that the first exit poll numbers aren't always accurate, there's a long way to go before we know for sure who is the second place candidate and in the run-off with Keiko.

UPDATE: Exit pollster GFK is also calling it a "technical dead heat" between PPK and Mendoza with a slight advantage to PPK.

UPDATE 2: The less reactive end of the Peru political commentariat tell your humble scribe that Veronika Mendoza has a strong chance of making it to round two on the back of this exit poll result, as the rural votes that don't make it into this snapshot should favour her. We shall see, but I'd say that even the 9pm "first official" number, which gives us between 20% and 30% of the totals, isn't going to give us a clear second place number. We're going to have to wait until tomorrow Monday for a result on this one. Gonna be tight, folks.

SEDAR's back up, Canucky numbernerds

Midday Sunday, SEDAR is back online after its day and a half offline for maintenance.

Just so you know.