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6/4/16

UPDATED: Peru election: IPSOS reportedly calling PPK ahead of Keiko with just one day to go before the vote

EDIT---> GFK also calling the same, see UPDATE below

EDIT 2: THIS IS NOW CONFIRMED, WE HAVE THE OFFICIAL IPSOS PUBLICATION, SEE UPDATE 2 BELOW --> A little background is needed first. In Peru surveys are not allowed to be published in the week before an election, but survey companies can go out and take polls and then "publish them to foreign sources". Which means in effect the pollsters can get round an out-dated law. So here's a screenshot of what's reportedly a poll taken by IPSOS and supposedly published today (and here's a Peru website carrying the same screenshot):



That says Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK) has caught up and overtaken his rival Keiko Fujimori in the last week, with 50.4% going for PPK and 49.6% going for Keiko with the big vote tomorrow, Sunday June 5th. Now for sure that's a technical dead heat and it must be stressed that it's not published yet so we also need to call it unofficial, but it's also the first time in five weeks we've seen PPK leading in any poll and that means he has momentum at the right time.

This election is going down to the wire.

UPDATE: GFK has it at PPK 51.1% and Keiko 48.9% in a poll published today Saturday. Reuters link here, here's the paydirt:
"Kuczynski won 51.1 percent of valid votes in a mock voting exercise GfK conducted on Saturday, compared to Fujimori's 48.9 percent. The survey had a 1.6 point margin of error, up or down."

UPDATE 2: Here's the screenshot of the official IPSOS PDF publication, out this afternoon:


Ali

The greatest.

6/3/16

The Friday OT: Talking Heads; Girlfriend is better (live)

Taken from the the film Stop Making Sense.



The zenith of the band, the big suit, the charisma, the beat. Ageless classic music for your Friday afternoon aural pleasure. Youtube link here.

Peru polling: GfK calling a virtual dead heat

Out today, pollster GfK is calling Keiko at 50.3% and PPK at 49.7%, in other words PPK is coming up on the rails with just two days to go and it's a tight race now. The last GfK poll published May 27th put Keiko 3.8 percentage points ahead.

Photo finish.

Belo Sun (BSX.to): Still no permit


Despite forecasts of an "imminent" permit award made by certain sellside anal ysts we could mention, the fact is that Belo Sun (BSX.to) and its Volta Grande project is still under review by Brazilian authorities. And if you don't believe IKN (I wouldn't blame you for that), take it from the Secretary of Environment and Sustainability for the State of Pará, its host region in Brazil, who said after the big May 31st meeting between all parties (translated)...

"It is important to make clear that this is a permit still under review"

...and we're not going to get any sort of decision in this first half of 2016, minimum.

In other words, the reason Belo Sun hasn't mentioned this meeting to anyone is that it really didn't go very well. 

And this is just the local political authorities, that's not even starting with the locals who hate the project and are ready with the curaré-tipped darts in their blowpipes.
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The jobs report, the gold price, South Park

Hey, y'think the BLS report is good for the new Fed position, or...perhaps...bad...?






Regarding Brexit

On reading my profanity-laced rant on the Primero Mining this morning, reader and Brit "DF" writes in to say, "You should post your Brexit rant from last week's NL".

So yeah, okay, why not? Here it is, published last Sunday.


A few more words on why Brexit won’t happen
Also in last week’s intro was this line, “..once the silly Brexit thing is over and the UK almost certainly votes to stay in Europe..” about the June 23rd referendum vote in the UK on whether the country stays in the EU or leaves. It was almost a throwaway in last week’s intro, nevertheless it got a decent handful of mails and the contents of them all can be paraphrased down to “Why think that?”. Okay, here goes and it’s really quite simple: Though Brits on both the left and the right may secretly love the idea of breaking away from all those European types due to their 1) innate sense of superiority and 2) innate racism* towards the nebulous menace of both “immigrants” (why has that simple and descriptive word become so threatening?) and other established Europeans (I’d treat you to the racist slang Brits have for every major country on the continent but there’s no point), Brits are at heart greedy self-serving people who will only ever vote for their own back pocket and have scant regard for idealistic matters such as society or togetherness. Take it from a British citizen who may have been living out the country for many years, but baggage is baggage and Napoleon had us down pat two centuries ago when he labelled the place “a nation of shopkeepers”. The “Leave” campaign people have not made a good case as to why the rank and file will be better off out of the EU, while the “Remain” campaign people have scared the holy excrement out of Brits by threatening the thing most dear to their hearts; the value of their houses. It doesn’t even matter if Chancellor (i.e. FinMin) Osborne’s prediction of an 18% drop in house prices is correct. It could be half that, or a quarter, even “your house won’t appreciate any further” is good enough, citizens who vote lefties, righties or centries in the UK have one thing in common, they’re all me-firsties and rare indeed is the principled stand for one’s political beliefs when loss of cold hard cash is at stake. An Englishman’s Home is his Castle (goes the expression), her/his castle is under threat, British people won’t leave because the Remain campaign’s so-called “Project Fear” is working. Quite right too, I’m all for scaring a bunch of sheep into doing the right thing.

Also, the UK bookmakers are offering odds of 4/1 that Britain votes to leave the EU (i.e. bet $10 and win $40, getting back $50 in total) and 1/6 that it stays (i.e. bet $10 and win $1.67, getting back $11.67 in total. Bookmakers are not charities. Finally, if you were to point out that in this setting the above-mentioned sense of superiority and the innate racism are the same thing, with certain caveats I’d agree.

*An example: When Labour (left) won a landslide general election victory in 1964, one Conservative (right) candidate bucked the trend and won his seat in a largely working class borough by using the campaign slogan, “If you want a ni___er for a neighbour, vote Labour." Yup , two Gs missing. And the campaign worked because it hit the button of “your house price will drop” more than “next door will have strange smells in the kitchen” or “they talk funny”.


c

6/2/16

Latest Peru Presidential election polling

Here:

"Fujimori slipped in Datum poll on Thursday, giving her 52.1 percent support in a mock vote compared to Kuczynski's 47.9 percent."

And Here:
LIMA, June 2 (Reuters) - Support for Peruvian presidential candidate Keiko Fujimori slipped three percentage points from a week earlier and she is statistically tied with her opponent Pedro Pablo Kuczynski ahead of Sunday's election, a poll by CPI showed on Thursday.
Fujimori won 51.6 percent of valid votes in a mock voting exercise conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday, compared to Kuczynski's 48.4 percent. CPI's survey had a 2.3 point margin of error, up or down. A CPI poll conducted May 26 and 27 gave Fujimori 54.8 percent of valid votes. (Reporting by Teresa Cespedes; Writing by Caroline Stauffer)

The IKN post regarding Primero's (PPP) (P.to) decision to take Mexico to court under NAFTA rules contains swear words

You have been duly warned.

You fucking stupid self-entitled bunch of gringo assholes, what the FUCK are you thinking? You do not take a sovereign nation to court just a few short months into any dispute, let alone the country where you have your main operating mine! You negotiate and negotiate and negotiate again, this type of action is the final recourse and there is no way in the fucking world you can tell us that you've reached the end of the road after such a short time.

Not only that, but this is exactly the same Primero that had two worker deaths last year, a record so poor it forced the company to overhaul its own pisspoor work practices. Oh what fun you gonna have when Mexico starts a careful check of your track record and asks your employees about the lax health & safety rules you used to cut costs that put the lives of their citizens in danger.

You stupid arrogant fucks have opened a massive can of worms. You do NOT piss off countries like this. The Donald Trump school of international relations may get you all testosteroned up and hi-fiving in the boardroom but when you find out what your HOST COUNTRY (for cryin'out loud!) can and will do to you I'm 100% certain you'll be feeling a very different set of emotions.

Sack the person who advised you to do this immediately, dumbfuck gringos. Proxy slate, anyone?

There, told you there were some swear words. The offending PPP NR is linked here

Chart of the day is...

...the gold/silver ratio, 12 months:



We're back up to 76X and the world's easiest financial target, silverbugs, in the process of being proven wrong again.

About time I put my money where my mouth is and shorted First Majestic. Opposing Inspector Gadget and Porter Scamsberry at the same time, pure catnip.

Rox Resources (RXL.ax) find a lot of zinc

A lot. As in "headlines in non-trade papers" size. Here's Australia's ABC News:


Its resources currently stands at 58m tonnes of 11.1% Zn and 1.6% Pb, which works out at over 14Lb lbs contained zinc alone. As for the stock, even though it's one of those classic Aussie blown-out penny jobs...




....the news was well received, we can say.

IKN thanks its down under correspondent JMD for the heads-up.

Think Zinc.

6/1/16

The Angry Geologist does Pretium (PVG)

On the back of yesterday's drive-by comment on this humble corner of cyberspace, T.A.G. picks up the Pretium (PVG) baton and runs with it. And well he runs, too. Your excerpt is:

"...they have drilled >200 holes into an area that measures 200m x 250m, with a drill-holes every 2-3 car lengths, and with all that data they do not have enough confidence in their own data to estimate the true widths of the veins/gold bearing structures.  Just a couple of questions:

  • Just how complicated is this deposit? 
  • If they can't calculate the true widths of the veins, how will they mine them?

Grade control is going to be a bitch!"

And that's putting it mildly. The whole thing is here, go read and learn something about rocks from a real economic geologist rather than a rock-kicker-stock-picker fake geologist. Or Rick Rule.

PS: I know enough Latin to translate his title, too. The first part is connected with the image of beautiful people while the second has to do with unwelcome intercourse by a member of the royal family.

Almadex (AMZ.v), a tin man and a parrot

The IKN mascot woke up and said...


...on reading this NR out of Almadex (AMZ.v) this afternoon which includes this...


...and we'll let our friend the Tin Man explain the details:




Seriously Poliquin, WTF you trying to pull? You hit a bit of Au in one 1.5m section of a core and suddenly its 178m of 0.95% copper equivalent? COPPER? What is this, 2010? The problem with this type of bullshit smearing is that's it's bad enough to put anyone in their right mind off buying Almaden (AMM.to) as they wonder what the same team of people have done to the bigger company's data.

Betting on a Peru President

Here are a couple of lines from IKN364, published May 1st:

"Or if you fancy a flutter, sportsbook Betsson is offering 1.7 on PPK and 2.0 on Keiko (making PPK a slight favourite) and I don’t mind telling you, I think even money on Keiko is a very good price."

And today, one month later on June 1st, here's how that Betsson betting table looks:


Just sayin'.

Chart of the day is...

...gold bullion holdings in the biggest gold ETF, GLD, April and May 2016:


It closed May at 868.66 metric tonnes. Not a bad two month period for the metal.

Don't Panic (from IKN368)

The IKN Weekly doesn't panic.



Here's how the main intro piece to IKN368 ended, the edition published last Sunday evening while gold played kiss'n'tell with the U$1,200/oz line. The only thing removed is the name of the stock I'm adding this week (in fact there are two):



I don’t think there’s anything here except an obvious buying opportunity on temporary weakness in the gold price. So that’s what I’m going to do next week by adding some (name removed). Or to cruelly steal from and unfairly edit one of my favourite authors, “The IKN Weekly...has many omissions and contains much that is apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate, it scores...in two important respects. First, it is cheap and secondly it has the words DON'T PANIC inscribed in large friendly letters on its cover”. Or it should have.

Does all this sound a little too blasé for your taste, the cool and smooth newsletter writer pooh-poohing dissent, going full goldbug and giving it the “we go up from here!!!” (three exclamations de rigueur)? Well...yes maybe, but be in no doubt the tide has definitely and definitively turned, this is now a bull market for gold and its stocks. In a bull market be bullish, don’t be bearish. And you’ll also note that it’s really easy to agree with “Buy. Hold. Win.” when everything is going up, it sounds snappy and brings a smile to the collective face of my esteemed and highly respected readership. When such catchphrases really matter is when there has been a temporary reversal over the larger uptrend, the reminder grates more when your position has just lost 10% or 20% but it’s far better to annoy than appease.


It also reminds me of another thing I'd like to do, which is put the brokerages out of business. The strategy of "Buy. Hold. Win" that's now the baseline of the Weekly isn't good for the people who make their wedge from commissions, which may just give you a clue as to why they like shaking out the weak and nervous hands from time to time when a bull market begins.

5/31/16

Brent Cook on BNN today Tuesday 11:20am EST

Joe Mazumdar's underling talking commods picks etc.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the BNN segment. He highlights MARL.L and MRZ.v, fwiw.

The Battle of Jutland

IKN makes space for a message from my mother about my grandfather:

I would like to say how proud I am of my dad who served in the Battle of Jutland 100 years ago today, and he was one of the lucky ones that came home again to continue serving his country, also to spare a thought to the thousands of men that lost their lives in this horrendous battle. To my dad always loved never forgotten.

His grandson agrees with everything written. If you care enough, Wikipedia has a very good and complete page on the events of May 31st and June 1st 1916.





Detour Gold (DGC.to), Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) and work-related deaths


TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - May 31, 2016) - Detour Gold Corporation (TSX:DGC) ("Detour Gold" or the "Company") reports that it was charged yesterday, along with three site employees, with offences under the Occupational Health and Safety Act relating to the fatality that occurred at the Detour Lake mine site on June 3, 2015.
"In light of the charge previously brought against the Company under the Criminal Code of Canada (as reported in the Company's news release of April 21, 2016) we anticipated that charges would be brought by the Ministry of Labour under the Occupational Health and Safety Act. We believe at this time that all charges related to this incident have now been served. We are taking these charges very seriously and will need to obtain the information on which all charges have been brought in order to be in a position to comment further," stated Mr. Martin, President and CEO of Detour Gold.

...is a reminder as to just why Kevin MacArthur of Tahoe Resources (TAHO) (THO.to) decided to suppress the news about the workplace death that occurred at his company's Escobal mine in November 2015 and has been kept secret from the market, without even mentioning the death in the company's regulatory filings. 

At least DGC stands up and is counted at the time of trouble. MacArthur prefers the coward's route.

Dynasty Metals & Mining (DMM.to): Hope is not a valid investment thesis

Remember back on the morning of April 27th when Dynasty Metals & Mining (DMM.to) shot higher on the announcement of a deal with local Ecuador company Green Oil S.A.?



The dumbfarks that bought into this stupid pump and shoved it to a near double in three days will now have plenty of time to repent at leisure. The news today starts with a thing about the appointment of a financial advisor to the special committee (what? they didn't have one on there before?), goes on to tell us that the strike at the mine is still happening and then at the bottom gives us this little pearl:
Following completion of the agreement with Green Oil (see Dynasty press release dated April 27, 2016), Dynasty was to receive a cash loan advance from Green Oil, as per the agreement focused on the Dynasty Goldfield property. While a portion of the cash loan advance has been received by Dynasty, the remaining portion has been delayed by international banking administration procedures. "While this administrative delay has been discouraging for Dynasty, we believe the remaining funds will be transferred shortly," commented Dynasty CEO, Robert Washer.
This is a good moment to remind the esteemed lectors of IKN about our First Law of Mining NRs:
The IKN First Law of Mining News Releases: Considering that anything contained in a mining news release is presented in the best possible way for the company in question, any piece of information contained in a NR that comes across in any way negative means the real news and/or events behind it must be very, very bad indeed.

IKN Repeats: Get out of this DMM dogstock before it's to late, it's going bankrupt.

Two zinc charts and an open trade

I've been sitting here this morning, staring like a mouthbreather at the screen and trying to decide whether I care about the reasonably good pop in zinc this morning, up 1.5% and running against other base metals that are either boringly flat or showing red.


And no, I don't care enough about this specific move because at 88c/lb we're still just bouncing around inside the New Normal trading range. On the other hand there's now a lot more chances that the shills and Zn permabulls who have been crying wolf about a supply shortage every year for the last five year or so are on the right track...


...because that particular squiggly line isn't at multi-year lows by pure chance. So rather than try and time this to perfection, I'm happy about holding the single best value zinc junior on the Canada boards and if it turns out I'm a few weeks or months too early to the trade, I won't sweat it. Subscribers know which stock I'm talking about.

The bit I most like about the Pretium Resources (PVG) NR...

...the the verb they use in the headline:

Pretium Resources Inc.: Valley of the Kings Infill Drilling Concludes With More High-Grade Gold Mineralization

"Conclude".

As in "finished".
As in "we don't need any more infill drilling at VOK any more".
As in "because we understand everything about the deposit now".

Bless em.

UPDATE: Reader "R" gets the message:

"To your point -- the most telling excerpt from the PR: "True thickness to be determined."

Good to know you don't know true width of the infill drilling on the years 1-3 planned stope areas?"

5/30/16

Peru presidential election: Still hope for PPK

Latest things:

1) PPK had a much better debate last night against Keiko than he did the weekend before last. It's up to the individual to decide who won it, I thought it was a basic tie, but the fact that PPK at least held his own (and according to his supporters won it) is more important. He looked the part last night.

2) Lefty first round candidate Veronika Mendoza, who came third and originally said she wouldn't give advice on who to vote for, has this morning changed her position and called on here supporters to vote for PPK in order to stop Keiko. This could add a point or two to PPK's percentages in the vote this Sunday coming.

So although Keiko has been ahead in all polls recently those looking for a PPK comeback have some hope on the horizon now.

Chart of the day is...

...gold:




Only to mark the fact that somebody, somewhere last night managed to buy some for undr U$1,200/oz. I'd venture to say they're very happy about the trade, too.

5/29/16

The top three most visited IKN posts this week are...

...in reverse order:

Third Place: "Keith Neumeyer is Inspector Gadget", the only problem with Keith is that he's too easy a target. No challenge these days.

Second Place: "Joe Mazumdar and his underling do MIF", because you like videos.

First Place: "Goodbye, Eco Oro (EOM.to)", about the Colombia Constitutional Court news last week

The IKN Weekly, out now




IKN368 has just been sent to subscribers. Think zinc.

Peru Presidential election polling: Trend to Keiko

With the last set of voter intention polls now out, including one today from IPSOS that puts Keiko Fujimori five and a half points ahead of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski with just a week to go before the June 5th run-off vote, here's how the pollster readings have altered since the end of round one:


No doubt the trend is towards Keiko and from the second-rank data you get from all these polling results, the key aspect seems to be that undecided voters who have made up their mind are opting for Keiko over PPK. Keiko is now in a non-technical-dead-heat lead, however the cut-down Y-axis in the above chart makes the gap look bigger to the eye than it is, the lead is small and PPK still has a shot at convincing people he's the best choice in tonight's (Sunday) live TV debate. Yes Keiko has to be called favourite for the big prize from here, with polls indicating a 53/47 or 52/48 win (once the non-valid votes are discounted) but PPK isn't out of it yet.