The Daily IKN email digest, get all daily posts sent to you next day (& no ads)
Build a fire light a match and watch the whole thing burn. Youtube here
This is the chart...
Light posting today as there are things to do in the real world.
This is of course a developing story.
...GLD inventories, Brexit to date:
The gold price may have dropped to the pre-brexit result level, but inventories on the big one haven't. That's 947.95 metric tonnes. Data here.
If you want my phone number, ask me for it. Don't try and get it via third-party sneaky backdoor methods. All you have to do is write me a mail, not difficult.
Watch what Deyna Castellanos does to win the match for Venezuela (2-1 versus Cameroon in the U-17 Women's World Cup):
Amazing. Thanks to reader SB for the heads-up.
- From pennies to over a Loonie on "New Red Lake" rumours? Check
- Dubious chart volume patterns? Check
- Several "paid sponsorship" deals with newsletter writers? Check
- Pumped by the criminals at CEO.ca? Check
- Flashy mid-summer news release citing "visible gold"? Check
- Everything go quiet? Check
- Greenhorn bagholders left wondering what's going on? Check
- Eventual initial drilling results (out just a few minutes ago) show nothing special, patchy results, little chance of continuity? Check
UPDATE: 20 minutes after the open:
Well, there's a shockah.
...gold, under U$1,300/oz for the first time since Brexit:
And while we're here, a quick reminder that you too can work for Bloomberg:
Argentina: National Government Miner Friendly up 1 point, Community/Social Miner Friendly down 1 point.At times this quarter it’s seemed like there is only one country with mining activity in South America, judging at least by the contents of my mail inbox. Everyone wants to know something or other about Argentina mining these days, it seems.However the most pressing issue today is the state of the country’s macro economy because we’re now in a crucial period that will decide whether the reforms President Macri has pushed and is pushing through will be successful. In effect, what the Macri government is betting on is that the next couple of quarters are the period of max pain for the country economy. The fiscal and monetary reforms now in place are classic orthodox economic pills to swallow (and why the IMF is praising Argentina so effusively): Go through the sharp recession, restrict pay rises and then see inflation drop later, enjoy the benefits of a V shaped drop next year. As things stand today the country in in recession (best fit figure -5% GDP) and this is expected to continue to the end of the year, while inflation has shown signs of dropping in the latest sets of data but is still running at between 35% and 40% per annum. As wages are no longer keeping up with prices, the discontent at street level is rising fast and Macri’s approval ratings have dropped from 60% at the beginning of the year to between 35% and 45% today (depending on which pollster you prefer).However 2017 does look brighter for the country and the situation was summed up neatly last week in by one of Argentina’s most famous economists (who seems to have been around forever, he was chief economic advisor in the Carlos Men_m years*), Miguel Kiguel in an economics conference. Here’s a quote (14) (translated):“There’s not much doubt that next year Argentina will grow (i.e. year-over-year GDP expansion), even (Ex-Minister of the economy in the Cristina government Axel) Kicillof agrees. And there’s not much doubt that inflation will drop either. What we see this year in an inflation rate of 40% has a lot to do with the one-time readjustments (e.g. the very large utiliity bill increases, known as “tarifazos”, as government subsidies were withdrawn). Later we’ll see whether the Central Bank has enough power to drop inflation to 17% in 2017 or maybe it will be a little higher, but nobody’s expecting an inflation rate in 2017 that starts with a 3, the most pessimistic are talking about 23% or 24%, the most optimistic around 17%.”So there you have the scenario for the next year; pain today, GDP recovery at perhaps 5% next year, with an inflation rate that drops from its current 40% to something around 20% in 2017. The point here is that 2017 will be better, but will it be enough and for two reasons:1) Inflation at 20% is better, but it’s still going to hurt the back pockets of José Publico if their salary increases are restricted to below that level and add to the hurt they’re currently feeling. A year is a long time and the dissent is likely to get louder before it calms.2) A key point: In October 2017 Argentina has mid-term legislative elections in which 127 of the 257 lower house parliament seats (just under half) and 24 of the 72 upper house senate seats (one third) are up for grabs. This vote will be critically important, as not only might it change the balance of legislative power in Congress but it’s already being framed as the make-or-break moment for the Macri reform package.Therefore, not only is there a reform period to get through without too much social protest, but there’s a time limit on progress too because if the recovery lags in the country and the rank and file are suffering too deeply come election day, Macri (and I keep reminding people that he only scraped in 52%/48% last year) is going to get a big thumbs down and then everything is up for grabs. And signs today are not good. Not only do we have his dropping approval ratings but as noted last week the largest and most powerful union in the country is now on the brink of calling a one day general strike to protest the measures in place. They want bigger wage increases etc etc, just the type of thing that would feed inflation (15) at the wrong time for the economic turnaround model Macri and his team are trying to implement. The strike still doesn’t have a fixed date and there are formal negotiations that are expected to go on for the next ten days, but a strike if it happens would be a clear negative and may set off further rounds of social protest.Meanwhile in the mining scene, the government is still trying its hardest to push the Federal “all work together” model in the provinces and try to take executive decision power away from individual governors. That’s going to be a tough sell in places like Chubut and I’ve covered that example (particularly Navidad) closely, as it’s a good test case for the rest of the country. Then on top of all that, Barrick goes and adds insult to injury with another spillage incident at Veladero (see above), which wouldn’t have been any sort of problem if the company hadn’t been stupid enough to try and cover it all up.Overall, Argentina gets one plus point for the macro and one negative point for the mining scene this quarter, but it’s still a story that’s being way overhyped in the North and the large-scale risks involved in jumping in too early are being ignored by most commentators (and the board of directors of Fortuna Silver).
Amarillo Slim: "Look around the table. If you don't see a sucker, get up, because you're the sucker"
Give Makuch credit, he's consistent.
When he gets bought out he under-charges.
When he buys out he overpays:
Don't take up poker, Tony.
This is of course a developing story.
Finally, I just heard on Colombian radio that as soon as the tendency became clear and the momentum was with the NO side, the main player in the NO campaign, ex-president Álvaro Uribe, got in contact with all his allies in the NO campaign and told them all, "Do not celebrate this result" and told them all to pass the message down the political lines. That's also a reasonably positive reaction, one that will make negotiations easier in the next couple of days.
UPDATE: For a live Spanish language TV feed from Colombia, this link. The NO vote now has 50.2% of the vote and the shock result is looking more likely. Blame is being put on the very low turnout which wasn't helped by the very heavy rainfall in Colombia in the last 24 hours. It would seem that the hardcore NO voters had more will to get to the voting booths.
UPDATE 2: With 98.85% of votes counted, it's now NO 50.2% and YES 49.8%. This referendum is now a done deal and Colombia has rejected the agreement between the government and FARC as stands.
The head of the NO vote campaign has just spoken on national TV and said they also want peace and will be responsible, but the agreement needs to be adjusted and improved in aspects that were "badly negotiated". He also called for compensation for victims and justice to act against FARC members. He also strongly criticized the polling companies that were predicting a 55% to 60% victory for "YES" all week, saying that they had been biased and ignored the silent majority of Colombians that were not happy with the terms of the peace agreement as stands.
UPDATE 3: The final result is in, 100% of votes counted:
The peace process agreement has been rejected by Colombia. Hilarity ensues.