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2/18/17

BT: The Upside Down

New track from BT and holy wow and genuflections, it's brilliant.



This is what Gustav Mahler would be doing if he were alive today. Youtube here

Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM.to): The trolls arrive at IKN's door

William Routliffe, normally known as Bill, is a classic dumbass investment troll. They are a standard breed but they come with variants and in his case he's enamored with his guru (in his case Marin Katusa), long Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM.to) and because of his sad-assed pathetic life the only thing he manages to do with his day is trawl the internet, find anyone and anything that dares speak a little truth into his ear and then try to beat it down with pseudo-intelectual claptrap, normally on bullboards far and wide, sometimes in comments sections of newspapers reporting on the objects of his masturbatory fantasies and from time to time, obviously, e-mails to authors. I got mine today and here it is:

Regarding your comments on the short defense, I am surprised you did not consider that the criticisms you make are also applicable to the short report.  You are scathing in your attacks on NAK, yet, you overlook the flaws in the short attack.  Do I need to point out to you the obvious disconnect ?  I understand the shorts, they stand to make enormous profits.  NAK, is of course, defending themselves.  What is your interest?  I believe you wish to appear independent and unbiased.  This string of reports puts you firmly in the short camp.  This recent post has damaged your creditability with me.  You do not appear to be objective, or intellectually honest.  What is your interest in this matter, and how are you being compensated?  How do you justify accepting the short report at face value and dismissing the defense out of hand?  The short report writers are totally unqualified and do not appear to have any professionals in place.  TD has much more credibility that some unknown short seller.  I acknowledge they both have money at stake, but I  believe TD  is more credible.  As always, sell side analysis must be taken with a grain of salt.
      If you are  serious, and intellectually honest,I believe a fair and calm rebuttal of these points is required.  If you choose not to, than it leaves me with the impression that you are no different that other scam artists and snake oil salesman that pollute the internet.
     This biased stand on NAK has led me to doubt the objectivity of your posts in general.  I have been enjoying reading your work and it has often proved interesting.  Thank you for addressing my concerns.


Therefore Bill Routliffe, I am happy to address your concerns and provide an answer to you:

Fuck off.

Love, Otto. 


PS: The word is "credibility", Bill.


Disclosure: No position at all in NAK.


PPS: And of course Mr. Routliffe felt the need to write into your humble scribe again, trolls are psychologically programmed to require the last word. And of course you humble scribe simply deleted his mail without opening or reading it, there's no point or reason in engaging with these idiots. Another day on the blog.

A Saturday Footy OT: "Roberto Baggio at 50: celebrating his five greatest free-kicks"

The article linked here and the videos of the five goals it contains is a little slice of footballing divinity. Lovers of Association Football sit back, relax, find a tasty hot beverage, click though, sigh with heartfelt desire.

Unigold (UGD.v) loses its concession

Nice late night Friday NR from Unigold (UGD.v), read it here. Basically, they've lost their Nieta project because they've been concession-squatting and the Dom Rep govt has run out of patience with these idiots. Love those late Friday NRs. Long weekend, too.

2/17/17

CB Gold (CBJ.v) is now Red Eagle Exploration

To the surprise of nobody.

The Friday OT: Jean-Michel Blais; Casa

Montreal's finest:



Take a few minutes from your busy, thrusting Friday for some sublime piano beauty.

Youtube here.

The funniest bits of the Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM.to) rebuttal to the Kerrisdale hitpiece

NR here. As for the fun bits, there are several:

1) My very favourite, voluntarily highlighting that in the two decades of exploration life Pebble has only ever had one PEA published on it. If Pebble really is a World Class deposit with all superlatives attached that sure is a weird way of going about your mining business, Canada.
2) Calling TD Sec independent. That's like calling Canadian sell side brokerages honest.
3) Calling Stansberry Research independent. That's like calling Allan Barry a qualified geologist, an engineer, a lawyer, a Spanish speaker, not lonely, sober.
4) Calling John Tumazos independent, when Tumazos readily admits he owns around 120,000 shares of NAK (please note NAK did not seek permission to quote Tumazos).
5) Pretending that Pebble isn't low grade. They even put the phrase between speech marks as an attempt to mock Kerrisdale, that's just plain funny. Now scamsters like the proven securities fraudster Porter Stansberry and the proven liar Marin Katusa can pull all the wool over the eyes of greenhorns that they want, but people living out here in the real world know that a resource like this...
"...527 million tonnes of Measured resources grading 0.33% Cu, 0.35 g/t Au, 178 ppm Mo and 1.66 g/t Ag and 5.9 billion tonnes of Indicated resources grading 0.41% Cu, 0.34 g/t Au, 245 ppm Mo and 1.66 g/t Ag.  David Gaunt, PGeo., a Qualified Person who is not independent of Northern Dynasty is responsible for the estimate."
...can only be described as low grade. And again, note that even after two decades of work there is no economic reserve. That's crazy.
6) Quoting Anglo American on the official reason they dumped Pebble. I mean, what did you expect from Cutifani, something along the lines of "Yeah we ploughed $600m into the thing before realizing how uneconomic it is so better late than never"? 
7) And of course they still don't mention that thing about how the gold doesn't report to the copper conc or circuit. Bless em.

Overall, this is a weak response to the Kerrisdale short attack. It might fool the mouthbreather end of the market for a day or so, but they ain't fooling anyone with a couple of mining neurons to rub together. Disclosure: no position at all in NAK.

2/16/17

"Yamana El Peñon Mine is Dying" redux

Just over a day after the post "Yamana El Peñon Mine is Dying", Yamana (AUY) (YRI.to) offers up 2017 production guidance for El Peñon and...


...HOLY SUSTAINABILITY, BATMAN!

My stars, if you didn't know how bad this company's management team is before, just look at what it's done with a decent asset. If I were a shareholder of Yamana Gold I wouldn't even be angry, I'd be embarrassed.

Get your submission in for GMO's "Who's Who of Mining 2017"

Who do you think deserve recognition as one of the industry's top names? There's still time to have your say on this so here's what to do:
2) Click on the submission link
3) Name the person who you deserves sector applause (and your submission can be anonymous).
4) Hit send, sit back, soak in the love.

Easy as that, but time's running out to make your submission so make it happen now, kind madam or sir. Link here.

New Gold (NGD) and the triumph of the human spirit

Your humble scribe opens the NGD Q4 results documents last night, plugs the numbers into the spread, then shakes his head, closes XLS, does something else. Then the next morning (i.e. today) reads a whole swathe of "NGD not so bad" notes from the Canadian brokerages and watches in complete amazement as the stock gets bought up to the tune of 5% or so.

Seriously, how do the paid whores in suits writing this blithering nonsense about a company destined for the share price scrapheap sleep at night? They're telling me to look at the record low cash costs, are these people nuts? Look at the freakin balance sheet!




Nobody in their right financial mind who spends time looking at the numbers then sits them next to the potential of River River would buy this stock and that's because This. Company. Will. Not. Escape. From. Its. Debt. NGD is a dead man walking and only question about the day of the restructure that decimates the equity value is "when?". The market is telling me this company is worth U$1.67m market cap? Holy maloney!

But don't pay attention to lil ol me, the share price is rising! Buy, buy buy! It's the triumph of the human spirit and hope. But hope always dies right at the end. Which is coming.

GLD inventories tide change

Right here:




With the backdrop of multiple record highs in world stock markets, that's an interesting chart.

Primero Mining

IKN has made its point about Primero Mining (PPP) (P.to) enough times over the past 12 months, with last night's NR it's now making the point all by itself. One day, a couple or years down the line, a student is going to earn a top grade university degree by using Primero as a prime example of how not to operate a mining company in Latin America as the list of gross mistakes is too long for any body of writing less than a full thesis. I for one will always remember the hubris of Conway as he sat on a round table with The Clive of B2Gold and scoffed at the the way other mining companies were run and calling most of them short candidates. The short was you, Conway, you massive idiot.

2/15/17

How lies are spread on the internet, CEO.ca edition

There are so many lying pieces of shit over at CEO.ca it's difficult to choose, but the latest tonight is a liar by the name of donmauro:


That link goes to this, another liar over at Stockhouse who has made up a false ID for our good friend TAG (go look for yourself, I'm not spreading lies here, we leave that to people like Humphreys and his cohorts). So allow IKN to set the record straight; that's not TAG. TAG is not "the angry environmentalist", TAG is "the angry geologist" and the post getting publicity from the shameful hive of liars CEO.ca is made-up bullshit done by people who are scared of the truth. One of those items of truth is that First Mining Finance (FF.v) is a scam pump that's wildly overvalued.

CEO.ca is a home for fake news. Which shouldn't come as any surprise, considering that it was set up to provide exactly that service by Tommy Humphreys for his paymaster and god Frank Giustra.

Marin Katusa, caught red-handed in illegal trading

Do you think the two-faced self-serving insider-trading illegally-operating snake-oil salesman and all round scumbag Marin Katusa reads IKN? Yup, you bet! Ladies and gentlemen, your timeline of Katusa lies:

1) Kerrisdale publishes its short attack on Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM.to) yesterday Tuesday morning February 14th.

2) Marin Katusa sends an alert response to his subscribers yesterday Tuesday afternoon. 

3) IKN publishes this post yesterday Tuesday evening using Katusa's own published statements from his response to demonstrate that he has been illegally insider-trading NAK stock. The key segment, lifted directly and used verbatim from Katusa's note to readers was  this (IKN bold type):
"Essentially the fund makes a claim that the deposit is worthless. Having been to the project with David Lowell, one of the world’s best geologists, and personally been in the data room, I think the project is the opposite of worthless. I put millions of my own money into the company for a reason.”
As clear as day and undeniably published.

4) IKN notes this morning that both the TSX market and the BCSC are taking a keen interest in Katusa's insider-trading remarks.

5) And now, the wonderful new development! Earlier today Katusa sent out a second note to his clients which states the following (IKN bold-types for your viewing pleasure). My thanks to reader C for the new info, taken from here:
"...Essentially the fund makes a claim that the deposit is worthless. I have been to the project with David Lowell, one of the world’s best geologists, and we were presented the same information that every other analyst has been presented and we believe wholeheartedly that this is a world class project. We have not signed a CA and we have not been in the data room. I think the project is the opposite of worthless. I put millions of dollars into this company as previously disclosed to all Katusa Research subscribers..."

This guy is hilarious! Suddenly, when faced with IKN's revelation and obvious conclusion that he's using illegally procured information to make money, and almost certainly pressured by the market authorities, Marin Katusa changes his tune 180° and pretends he didn't say all that thing about visiting the data room! He now claims he has not visited the NAK data room, this despite the fact that he stated that in writing the day before and not only that, he went around boasting to all and sundry about his visits to the NAK data room for months on end.

Marin Katusa is a bare-faced liar, another proven fact about him we can now stack alongside the proof that he trades illegally. QED. Pez por la boca muere, pelotudo.

Marrone mailbag time: "Yamana El Peñon Mine is Dying"

Here's a fine mail, received this morning from A. Person with the title line as seen above.

In 2010, Mr. Moron-e stated that the exploration program at El Peñon mine in Chile would lead to "...achieving a sustainable production level of 450,000 to 500,000 GEO with the potential for additional increases."
 
In the recent exploration update released last night, we find that "The Company believes that 2017 will be a year of transition at El Peñón with the available wide and high grade veins being replaced by numerous high grade yet narrower vein systems. During this transition, production will be reduced from recent levels, although over a longer term at a more sustainable level."

The use of the word "sustainable" in both of these cases is driving me insane. I feel like I am being remotely programmed. 

"El Peñon is dead. Long live El Peñon"

Indeed it's true and if we check on production results at El Peñon since 2010...



...we see two things:

1) Its production is tailing off badly, so much for "sustainable".
2) Even in the apparent good years, up to end 2014 AUY juiced its top line results by pretending a gold/silver ratio of 50/1 (therefore I've used their very own BS number to convert the 2015 and 2016 results).

Very-near-term moves in the price of gold don't usually bother me...

...be they up or down, but this today...




...is interesting and noteworthy. Who gives a crap about CPI anyway?

Two things about Northern Dynasty (NDM.to) (NAK)

Yesterday's IKN post on the conclusive proof that Marin Katusa has been using illegal inside information to trade Northern Dynasty (NAK) stock has this morning been getting a whole bunch of hits from the TSX and from the BCSC (thank you back office stats machine). This is getting interesting and it would make such a refreshing change if the regulators actually did something about these two-faced scumbags like Katusa and his proven securities fraudster pal Porter Stansberry (who has also been pumping NAK for all he's worth, the crudball).

Of all the things mentioned in the Kerrisdale hit-piece yesterday, on sober reflection and a night of rest one thing stands out. I agree it's been pumped to idiots by liars, I agree its permitting track looks way difficult even under a Trump admin (national decisions are a minor part of these things), I agree its capex looks prohibitive, I agree the grade is stupidly low (and there's the gold reporting issue previously mentioned here, too). But the one thing that stands out from the hit piece is to consider is that in the 20+ years this project has been explored, we haven't seen a single feas study come out. And what's worse they've been commissioned, just never seen the light of day. When two decades go past on a gold project and there's still not a single substantive document that runs the numbers on the project and shows its economic validity, the fishy smell (poisoned salmon?) becomes a stench. If only for this fact, Kerrisdale has identified a strong candidate for shorting.

Chart of the day is...

...the US 10 year TIPS yield, last three months:


Hmmm....above 0.45% for the first time since January 6th, a date on which gold was $50/oz lower than today. Not drawing any conclusions on this one yet, but still...

Hmmm...

Thought of the day is...

...brought to you by the camera lens of reader TK':


Truth told well.

2/14/17

Angry Geologist does Cordoba Minerals (CDB.v)

An interesting geological take on a current hot stock. Right here.

Conclusive proof that Marin Katusa is insider trading Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM.to)

And it comes from his own pen, the stupid freakin' idiot. Here's an excerpt from what Marin Katusa wrote to subscribers this afternoon as part of his rebuttal against the Kerrisdale Capital short position in Northern Dynasty (NDM.to) (NAK), revealed this morning:
"Essentially the fund makes a claim that the deposit is worthless. Having been to the project with David Lowell, one of the world’s best geologists, and personally been in the data room, I think the project is the opposite of worthless. I put millions of my own money into the company for a reason”
Get that? If you didn't, allow me to point to the key phrase; "...and personally been in the data room". This is also a claim he's made on numerous occasions at conferences and talks when pumping NAK to his dumb flock, but chatting off-record is one thing, seeing him so desperate to defend his BS P&D trade by putting it in writing is quite another. People, what's in a company's data room is for two types of people:
  • Company officers or employees
  • People who have signed a non-disclosure agreement/confidentiality agreement
Katusa is not a director, officer or employee of NAK. And if he's signed a NDA/CA, he's broken it. And if he hasn't signed one NAK should never have let him in the data room and NAK is in big trouble. And he's trading NAK on the back of non-public material information. Not only is that plain straight illegal, but he's also generating subscription revenues by boasting about it to the public market and making even more money illegally.

It's about time Canada shut down this illegal trading and pumping of stocks. Somebody from the OSC, BCSC, IIROC, anyone with the requisite cojones now has a prime opportunity to slap  one of its worst protagonists where it hurts. His name is Marin Katusa and he's an illegal insider trader making ill-gotten gains from his sordid modus operandi.


Who's Who, from Global Mining Observer

This looks very interesting. Check it out, rich and famous mining people, because if you don't make the pages of Who's Who 2017, don't even bother showing your face at PDAC 2018.

Daryl Hodges news: The pisspoor lying scumbag parasite gets called out again

Thank you reader 'S' for the heads up on this.

The 'Concerned Shareholders' news release out today regarding Rapier Gold (RPR.to) is a pretty typical one that comes before a proxy slate battle and starts like this:

  • Destroyed Shareholder Value. The Concerned Shareholder, Delbrook Capital Advisors Inc., believes that the management and Board of Directors of Rapier Gold Inc. have destroyed considerable shareholder value and continue to operate the Company without a clear strategy focused on maximizing shareholder returns.

And who is one of the members of the current board of directors? Why, none other than Daryl Hodges! Destroyer of Jennings Capital and the person who tried to rape Minera IRL by making false accusations about its people, lying to its shareholders and crushing the share price. 

Bad news follows this scumbag round like a stray dog. Mr McEwen, pay special heed.

Kerrisdale shorts Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM)

Thanks to the dozen or so people that have sent in the news, the PDF or the link to the Kerrisdale Capital short report on Northern Dynasty (NAK) (NDM.to). If you want to read it, it's right here. For what it's worth* I largely agree, then again my thoughts on NAK were made clear on February 1st in this post which went like this:

First we have long-time market scamster Marin Katusa pumping Northern Dynasty's Pebble project, preying on the ignorance of naive mining greenhorns with more money than sense, with the whole thrust of this crazy pump being "Trump will award the permits". Now we have another scumball on the bandwagon, Michael Ballanger over at The Gold Report trying to make the case for NadaGold's Donlin gold project, also in Alaska...
"NOVAGOLD's announcement that it is nearing the end of the Environmental Impact Statement process at its 50%-owned Donlin Gold project in Alaska was welcomed by a pair of observers."
... by swatting out a paid-for pump piece on NG and rebounding comments of people already long and with vested interests in the stock. Which is all very nice I'm sure, but this whole new pumperooney on these dogs misses a vital point: They're both dogshyte projects, marginal at best, most likely uneconomic in real terms even under much higher gold prices and with crazily high capex costs. Pebble has low grade gold that doesn't report to the copper cycle (which is why Cominco sold the thing to HD in the first place) and Donlin is notoriously refractory. So forget the permit papers and even ignore the significant local opposition, it doesn't matter how many papers with signatures they get because they're not going to be mines. Permitted or not. Ever.

So yeah, ripe for the drop is NAK. Maybe Kerrisdale will take a pop at NadaGold next, about time somebody did the Emperor's New Clothes on that one. But as for NAK, here's the 10 day price chart and...


...pretty interesting trading so far.

*not much




Banana Republic mining news

Hey, you remember that Argentina "Federal Mining Agreement"? That document to be signed by all 23 provincial governors of Argentina that the country would then parade in front of the suited dignitaries at PDAC to pretend it was a serious country with clear rules for one and all?

Mario Das Neves, governor of Chubut, has just stated that he won't sign it.

Hey Ross, how's that Aquiline purchase going?

Minera IRL: That very interesting Q&A with Semana Economica

Yesterday this humble corner of cyberspace linked through to the interview Peru's highly regarding bizmedia house Semana Economica had with Diego Benavides, CEO of Minera IRL. Here's a translation of the four questions and answers contained within, they're well worth reading carefully:

Semana Economica: In 2015 and 2016 there was an internal power struggle at Minera IRL. Are all the problems now resolved?
Diego Benavides: "All the legal actions brought against me by the ex-directors of IRL have been dismissed. We've managed to re-list our shares in Lima (BVL) and Toronto (CSE). The next step is to re-list in London (AIM), which should be in 3q17. London is very important (to us) as 55% of our shareholders are there, above all the institutions."

SE: When will production start at your Ollachea project?
DB: "The objective is to begin construction as soon as possible, we could begin within three or four months and between June and July 2018 we would be in production. The estimated capex was around U$180m, but our debt capacity has a limit and we do not want to dilute our shareholders (by emitting a lot more shares. Due to this we are optimizing the project and reducing capex to U$30m."

SE: How will the project change?
DB: "We're looking to reduce the daily throughput from 3000 tonnes to 1500 tonnes. This will allow a reduction in construction time from two years to one year. In the first two years we would produce around 60,000 or 70,000 ounces of gold (instead of the current estimate 100,000 ounces). In year three, with positive free cash flow, we will expand volume to 2000 or 2500 tonnes and gold production pays for capex and opex, which will allow shareholders to have upside."

SE: In 2015 Cofide awarded a U$70m bridge loan to IRL in order to finance Ollachea. How has that advanced?
DB: "There were two conditions to secure the final loan. First a drill program which is now complete and has increased the inferred resources at the project by around half a million ounces. Second, the change of the construction contract from an EPCM to an EPC "turnkey" deal, which hands off construction risk to the contractor.
We will talk with Cofide in order to determine whether a syndicated loan is the most appropriate (as initially thought) as it will weigh us down with debt. We have to lighten this. The current plan is to restructure with leasing and reduce principal financial debt. We believe the final debt deal can be ready by June."

UPDATE: And to make clear an important point, here's a mail just received from reader 'R':
Presumably "by?"

" Due to this we are optimizing the project and reducing capex to U$30m."

The answer is no, it's "to". IRL is looking to reduce initial capex to U$30m.


Cormark upgrades on B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG)

Cormark just upgraded B2Gold (BTO.to) (BTG) to a C$7.50 target, that's 70.5% higher than last night's close (and not many operating miners get that type of whack on targets). Richard Gray, along with many other on the trip, was impressed by what he saw on the Africa site visit beano.

2/13/17

Minera IRL (MIRL): Diego Benavides; "Ollachea will be in production in July 2018"

Two things:

1) A NR out tonight that announces on the Minapampa drill program and gives a framework of how many ounces it's added to Ollachea (hint: good number).

2) An interview with Peru's Semana Economica in which Minera IRL CEO Diego Benavides states, "Ollachea will be in production in July 2018".

So now you know.

The song and dance man (from IKN404)

I wasn't really sure how well it came out, not my best rant at all, but when separate subscribers write in with feedback about the screed saying that it should make the open blog, I don't see any reason to argue. Here's one of the two opening pieces to IKN404, out last night:

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The song and dance man

It's oh so quiet, Shh shh
It's oh so still, Shh shh
It's Oh So Quiet, Betty Hutton, 1951*



Preamble: I’ve tried to tighten up this semi-disjointed rant up a bit, but part of its message seems to be its very disjointed nature so in the end I edited it down but kept its disparate nature. I’m not in the running for a Pulitzer anyway. The TL:DR is “Trump isn’t really much of a factor to our investments and the world isn’t about to end just because he’s in the Oval Office”.



We need to talk about President Donald Trump. Soon we’ll need not to talk about Trump, the subject will get too repeated and too boring and as already noted on the blog (1) I’m going to curtail references to The Donald over there as much as possible (my tiny contribution to online well-being), but as The US government and its declarations are in the centre of all things newsy at the moment, there’s no avoiding at least some comment.



And the main comment is that, so far at least, there’s very little that really matters to me about President Trump’s administration. For sure there has been constant noise, sometimes close to deafening, about the executive orders and decisions handed down, along with the pushback from politicians and legal beagles alike. For what it’s worth, my fave to date is his picking a fight with the US judiciary. Really not a very good idea, Donald, it’s your four/eight year tenancy vs jurisprudence of two plus centuries, you’re taking a knife to a gunfight.



But it’s all rather inconsequential so far because it’s nearly all domestic policy. For sure building a big beautiful wall, re-doing NAF(F)TA and not letting people in from dangerous countries will affect people from countries other than The USA, but all of those are domestic and not foreign policy decisions and if you piss off an Australian politico or two along the way, big deal. The only thing we mining investors should care about are either domestic fiscal policy decisions that have a knock-on effect through Wall St, or true foreign policy decisions by The Donald, so far at least we’ve had none. Yes, we’ve had mutterings about a “phenomenal” (bless him) tax plan (2) which people are guessing will be “stimulative” (translation: rich get richer) and just the rumour saw bank stocks pop higher last week. When that one gets rolled out we can see how much optimism is already baked in, but you don’t need to take my word for the lack of real fiscal or economic news out there as yet, take it from somebody much smarter than I am about the subject (3):



U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Stanley Fischer said there was significant uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy under the Trump administration, but the Fed would be strict in meeting targets of creating full employment and getting inflation to 2 percent.

Speaking at the Warwick Economics Summit on Saturday, Fischer also said he thought Dodd-Frank financial regulation would not be repealed as a whole, and he hoped capital requirements for banks would not be significantly reduced.

"There is quite significant uncertainty about what's actually going to happen, I don't think anyone quite knows. It's a process which involves both the administration and the Congress in deciding fiscal policy," Fischer said, in response to a question.



Translation: “We don’t know what he’s going to do to the US economy yet. And we’re the freakin’ Fed, we’ve got computers and stuff, you guys out there don’t have a chance!”



Meanwhile, when it comes to foreign policy and foreign relations The Donald has found out quickly that “The Art of the Diplomatic Deal” is a missing chapter from his best-seller, a good thing for all of us. Remember all that “recognizing Taiwan” thing? Remember the “China nasty people playing nasty currency games”? Remember the trade war Trump threatened if China didn’t start giving America a good/fair/better deal? I’m sure President Xi Jiping of China remembered all of them when he told The USA that he wouldn’t even pick up the phone if The Donald wasn’t ready to accept the One China policy. Trump agreed, he now recognizes China as a single entity offshore islands and all, the two had a long conversation (4) and once it was done, the two were telling us of their assurances to work together for the greater good of both countries. Donald, that’s what having your wings clipped feels like. So here’s my bet; domestically Trump will continue to make waves, cause controversy and shake up “the system” (or the bit of the system he has identified as the nasty bit), but when it comes to the fate of the world he’s not going to make much of a difference, the smarter world leaders (China, Russia, some parts of EU and that does not include the UK) have got his measure already. The most insightful thing I read about Trump this week came from an unusual source, but a whipsmart brain. Here’s Mel Brooks (5) on his new President and entourage (and before you send in any stuffy mails, “anti-Muslim travel ban” are the words of The Guardian, not Brooks’ or mine):



Brooks, who views Trump’s anti-Muslim travel ban as poorly planned and poorly executed – his parents came to the US as kids – does not revile the new president in the kneejerk way most movie people do. “Trump doesn’t scare me,” he says. “He’s a song-and-dance man. Pence [the vice-president] and Bannon [Trump’s scheming henchman, a kind of Dick Cheney without the radiant, cherubic charm], those guys make me nervous.” He adds: “We are not talking about Athenian democracy here.”



I agree. However much his style and persona might agree/disagree with you or I, this whole drain the swamp” and “break the rules” schtick is only going to travel so far. Will “The Resistance” in The USA change my life, or even my financial situation? About as much as the Tea Party did (i.e not at all). Will a Trump tax law that allows the rich to get richer have a knock-on effect on my portfolio? Maybe, but only in the same way the rich got richer through Reagan/Bush1/SlickWilly/Dubya/Barry did. As long as Trump defines himself as a financial force for change, be it ultimately positive or negative, I’ll be able to handle his character and mouthiness. The way he’s already being put in his place on the world stage augurs well, he’s turning into a net neutral for my life and that’s a welcome turn of events.



*Though you may remember the 1995 Björk cover version


Dear subscribers LV and BM

Your mailboxes are full, that's why you're not receiving The IKN Weekly. If I were you I'd either pay for some more space, or delete a few thousand mails with Grumpy Cat meme GIFs in them, or maybe get a mail address from one of the companies that offers unlimited storage space. Then once you have, drop me another mail and I'll happily send you IKN 404 again. And have a pleasant day, too.

Final polling for the Ecuador presidential election

Here are the five polls announced on the last official day of polling late last, before the 10 day blackout period began. Source here.


Here's the gig: Lenin Moreno is the candidate picked by the Rafael Correa government and backed by outgoing President Correa himself. He needs either 50% +1 vote in round one (not going to happen) or 40% and the second place candidate more than 10% behind in order to win outright. That has a decent shot of happening, but as you can probably work out from that visual above it's no certainty. 

If it goes to round two all bets are off, the top two slug it out and there's a real chance the Correa party loses as the rest gang up on Moreno. Sunday is funday in Quito.

An important song...

...for a day like this:



Hit the crystal.

McEwen Mining (MUX) takes a step away from Continental Gold (CNL.to)...

...by doing a logical incestual deal and buying out Lexam VG. But only a step, it could still do more deals and Lexam VG with a ticket price of under U$54m isn't a massive company-changer deal.

2/12/17

The IKN Weekly, out now

Ceci n'est pas une pipe


IKN404 has just been sent to subscribers. An anal ysis of the B2Gold Q4 and 2017 guidance is the main event. Then there's a whole thing about where I'm taking profits and raising some cash. And there's some other stuff, too.